The H-1B shock

Tariff, Chabahar and now H1-B visa fees — all implying a crippling squeeze on India by the US. The latest in the line of the punitive measures by the Trump administration — the imposition of a $100,000 "one-time" fee on new H-1B visa applications — has jolted India's technology sector. While the White House rushed to clarify that the measure applies only to new visas and not renewals, the disruption and uncertainty it triggered were immediate.

Indian IT giants, which account for nearly three-quarters of annual H-1B allocations, are already calculating the higher costs of deploying professionals to their largest market. Nasscom, the country's leading IT body, has warned of business continuity risks, while the Indian foreign ministry has voiced concern about the humanitarian fallout for families caught in the transition. Washington is tightening the screws.

From punitive tariffs on Indian exports to undermining New Delhi's strategic investments in Iran's Chabahar port, and now restricting the mobility of its most skilled workers, the cumulative effect is one of economic pressure. For India, which has long championed its IT services industry as a symbol of global competitiveness, the H-1B shock strikes at the heart of its growth model. Remittances and talent mobility along with cross-border innovation pipelines are all now in jeopardy. The industry's confidence has been shaken overnight, with even the likes of Microsoft and JPMorgan advising their H-1B employees not to risk travel.

Ultimately, the lesson for India is that it can no longer put heavy reliance on a single market. New Delhi must diversify, deepening ties with Europe, East Asia and the Gulf to offset the narrowing space in Washington. At the same time, it must invest aggressively at home to retain and absorb its skilled workforce, lest the "brain drain" that fuelled its IT boom now turn into a "brain blockage".