Qatar ... what next?

So, Bibi Natanyahu and his right wing, deeply Zionist, anti-Muslim, uncontrolled government — which have no respect and regard for international law, or for the image hit that its only benefactor, the US, gets internationally and domestically from their rogue behaviour — did it again. On September 9, 2025, Israeli missiles hit a residential compound used by Hamas political leaders in the West Bay Lagoon area of Doha, where Hamas leaders were reportedly discussing a new US-backed ceasefire proposal. The strike, after Israel's earlier brazen attacks on Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Iran this year alone, killed six people: five members of Hamas and a Qatari security officer. Key Hamas leaders, reportedly, remained unscathed.

Netanyahu confirmed the "wholly independent Israeli operation" to avenge the deadly shooting in Jerusalem recently and the October 2023 Hamas attack. The strike drew widespread international condemnation. Qatar, while condemning the attack, vowed to pursue legal avenues for accountability and continue the mediation efforts. In the joint Arab League (AL) and OIC summit in Doha, GCC pledged to "activate a joint defence mechanism", and the possibility of trade limitations against Israel. UNSC unanimously condemned the strike, and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called it a "flagrant violation" of Qatar's sovereignty.

President Trump expressed 'displeasure' over the strike, for which 'ostensibly' America was not taken into confidence, and assured Qatar of no further attacks. Qatar hosts America's sprawling Al-Udeid Air Base, established in 1996, that is US CENTCOM's forward headquarters. The base, located southwest of Doha, hosts around 10,000 troops from the US, the UK and Australia. It is a crucial hub for the US and allied military operation in the Middle East and was significantly upgraded with Qatari money. It deploys regional surveillance, reconnaissance and air combat missions, including advanced systems like Patriot missile defence systems. These facts alone make the US claims of ignorance either doubtful, or the Qatari AD inadequate.

PM Shehbaz Sharif, while speaking at the emergency session of AL-OIC joint summit in Doha on 15 September, strongly condemned the attack. A day earlier, Deputy PM Ishaq Dar had proposed a seven-point response: a) holding Israel accountable for war crimes; b) creating a joint Arab-Islamic task force; c) pursuing suspension of Israel's UN membership; d) implementing punitive measures by member states; e) demanding of the UNSC to ensure an immediate and permanent ceasefire and prisoner exchanges; f) ensuring unrestricted humanitarian access to and inside Gaza; and g) reviving two-state solution through a genuine political process. The communique after the summit, other than the usual condemnations etc, welcomed the adoption of AL resolution for "Shared Vision for Security and Cooperation in the Region" that emphasises collective security and shared destiny of Arab and Islamic States, without any cogent roadmap.

The attack raises important questions. First, why Qatar? Doha is accused of supporting groups like Hamas and Akhwan (Muslim Brotherhood); and given its chasm in the recent past with GCC especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Qatar is considered by Tel Aviv an isolated, hence easy target, situated on the Middle Eastern political fault-lines. Even its charm offensive of gifting $400 million 747 Jetliner to President Trump, and massive defence deals (under finalisation) could not dissuade a rogue Israel from launching the attack.

Second, Qatar's defence spending is around $15.5 billion; its small military is around 22,000 active-duty troops; it boasts strategic partnership with Turkey, Iran and the US as a 'Major Non-NATO Ally'; and it heavily invests in advanced defence equipment, including modern aircraft. Qatar's Amiri Airforce boosts around 96 modern planes including US F-15, French Rafael and Typhoon Eurofighter aircraft. Hence its exceedingly reconciliatory response is perplexing. Will to use capability is more important than its possession. Weakness almost always invites aggression.

Third, Israel has established its punitive credentials by re-establishing deterrence through disproportionate response, under its Dahiya Doctrine, involving large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure (domicide). Its 5C deterrence incorporates clarity, capability, criticality, commitment and cohesion. Netanyahu is Middle East's unchallenged new sheriff.

Fourth, the Jewish lobby is overtly in support of Israel and its actions, shedding any pretense whatsoever. Jewish control of the US levers of power, media, educational institutions and global economy is almost complete. Such Jewish dominance has historically brought dark clouds for world Jewry.

Fifth, Israel's brazenness and US's bipartisan support has reduced international forums like the UN, Security Council, EU, etc to mere rubber stamps. The rule-based order has become a 'might-based disorder'.

Sixth, the iterations of a 'Greater Israel' at best is a Jewish fantasy. How the 10 million Israeli Jews (including some very saner elements) and their US backers will control the combined population of Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, GCC and beyond, is a historic and demographic fiction. Numbers ultimately prevail, if history is any guide, more so in this age of social media than at any other time in human history.

Seventh, the ceasefire talks. Qatar has been a key mediator between Hamas, Israel and the US. The attack has effectively sabotaged the talks and, as the Qatari Prime Minister said, has "killed any hope" for the hostages held in Gaza, for now.

And lastly Pakistan. Israel in the past has toyed with the idea of attacking Pakistan's nuclear sites. Under Netanyahu and his 'desi' avatar, PM Modi, it may miscalculate. While IDF air or missile strikes may not damage Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure and its employability, it may 'embarrass' Pakistan's military; Tel Aviv's avowed aim. We need to be aware of Indo-Israel intelligence penetration. Collaboration with India overcomes IDF's geographic and range limitations and gives Modi a cherished alibi. Pakistan needs to game the scenarios. Our response to any Israeli incursions, with or without India, under Pahalgam type staged operations, should be deadly, disproportionate and decisive, even if it means the employment of nuclear weapons. Some doubts were cleared by Islamabad during the May stand-off with India.

Pakistan's military under the Field Marshall will not blink. And that lesson needs to be taken to heart by the Israeli politicians and the IDF before they stand in front of map tables. This world has always respected power, brute and naked, and that lesson should not be lost on us under the influence of cliches like rule-based order, human rights and international legality.

Being poor is an inconvenience but being bereft of dignity, despite rolling in money, is a curse.