The SCO Summit — China, Russia and India

Last week we discussed India's desire for a pliant Pakistan; its persistent policy of 'hedging' by benefiting from all power centres; its presumed aspiration of 'strategic autonomy' in a world, carefully avoiding bloc politics; its emphasis on a multipolar Asia and multipolar world, where it has greater room for maneuver, playing sides; and its championing the cause of Global South. These and other theatrics were at play in Modi's ear-to-ear smiles and warm handshakes during the August 31-September 1, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Tianjin, China. This 25th SCO summit featuring 10 countries was attended by over 20 world leaders. PM Modi's summit fanfare, visiting China after seven years, was ostensibly a nimble rebuke to President Trump, for 50% tariffs on Indian imports.

Chinese President Xi Jinping presided this largest SCO meeting, hosted for the second time by China, wherein he proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI), emphasising 'a more just and equitable global governance system' through 'a shared future for humanity'. Xi enunciated five principles under the GGI, namely sovereign equality, international rule of law, multilateralism, people-centred approach, and focus on performance/real actions. He asked participants to carry forward what he termed the 'Shanghai Spirit' that underlines clear stand against hegemony and power politics, and suggests true multilateralism. Multipolarity was the central message of the summit, in line with Indian policy aspirations.

China's line of argument is an extension of Beijing's policy formulation for a 'harmonious world', China's peaceful rise and avoidance of conflict. President Xi pledged $280 million aid alongside $1.4 billion in loans to member states, through SCO banking consortium, emphasising deepening ties in energy, infrastructure, AI and science.

Invited heads of state, subsequently witnessed a military parade on September 3, 2025, in Tiananmen square Beijing, to commemorate China's victory over Japan in World War II. The parade showcased Chinese military strength and niche weapons like stealth fighter jets, air defence lasers, undersea drones, anti-ship and intercontinental ballistic missiles and robot dogs.

The summit and the parade raised strong interest and reaction by the West-Plus. President Trump pointed out the purported anti-US conspiracy under China's stewardship, and Europe is evaluating China's increasing military capability overland, in the air, over the seas, in the space, and in AI, robotics and cyber space. Following are the key takeaways from the summit, parade combo.

First, China, already the unrivalled regional power (India still needs to do a lot of catching up, aided or unaided by Washington), is now asserting at the global stage, nimbly suggesting an alternative to the West-Plus dominated security architecture and socio-economic order. The Chinese model underpins harmony and a conflict-free world, as opposed to the existing order that perpetuates Western hegemony; and China now has growing and more receptive adherents. Attendance by Egypt and SCO's dialogue partners, ranging from Turkey to Qatar, is evidence. Tianjin reflected Beijing's push to expand China's diplomatic and economic reach, reinforcing Xi's vision to showcase Beijing as a counterweight, at a time when global trade faces disruption and conflicts rage in Europe and the Middle East.

Second, summit demonstrated the beginning of geo-economic shifts in the global order. Reinforcing Xi's iterations, President Putin, also emphasised closer economic and security ties among SCO member nations, and with China. He highlighted revival of 'genuine multilateralism' under SCO, underlined Moscow's strategy of leaning on partnerships with China, and underscored increasing payments in national currencies. This would not only blunt the impact of sanctions and isolation imposed on Russia, but will also push humanity towards more economic independence. Just two SCO states — China and India — comprise 35% of global population.

Third, India continued to play all sides, promoting its national interests more than regional stability and development. Modi laid out India's priorities as 'security, connectivity and opportunity'; no double standards in dealing with terrorism; and reforms within the SCO and other international institutions, including the UN. When limousine diplomacy with Putin, grins, hugs and embarrassing handshakes with other world leaders were 'presumably' too much for his Washington benefactors, he jetted back without attending the military parade.

Despite SCO's theme of 'global multilateralism' that is music to Modi's ears, and in spite of Trump's rebukes, and remarks like having 'lost Russia and India to China', India will not embrace the SCO philosophy and spirit in totality. New Delhi will lie low, wait out Trump presidency, patiently work to repair ties with the US, and continue to play all sides, although it is now increasingly becoming difficult under an impatient and egotistic Trump, who disdains Indian policy of 'hedging'.

I have repeatedly written that India will never take the US bait of challenging China militarily, and that the American strategic thinking of propping India against China is as flawed as the US engineering of Ukrainian counteroffensive in June 2023. It is comical to read 'Indian-manipulated' commentary in the English press about Modi — not even a regional leader — being angry with a giant like Trump. India has, throughout history, respected and acquiesced to power, prestige and privilege.

Fourth, if anyone thought SCO summit would result in broader Indo-Pakistan détente and reconciliation, they were not reading the situation correctly. Modi's sole aim remained consolidating Indian policy framework, personal brownie points, and some agitational posturing against an arrogant US under Trump. In this backdrop of pushing Islamabad to diplomatic irrelevance, Pakistan's success at getting the Jaffar Express mentioned in the summit communique is a great achievement. It belies India's anti-Pakistan propaganda and its regional acceptability. Despite Shahbaz Sharif's poor protocol skills and speaking ability, SCO establishment under China reinforced Pak-China relations. Signing CPEC 2.0 is the icing on the cake.

Finally, experts believe SCO, although not an anti-US grouping, needs to avoid such labelling, as America still commands greater alliance power and geo-strategic and military-economic supremacy. Such branding would obscure SCO's broader ambitions of focusing on connectivity, trade and stability. Having called for ceasefire in Gaza, SCO could have sought end to war in Ukraine.

How this important forum emerges in the years to come will shape the global geostrategic outlook, international economic and political relations and great power competition. And that is where — though the die for shift is cast — lies many a slip between the cup and the lip.