Story of missed targets

The tax collection target is likely to swell to Rs16 trillion

The FY25 economic survey is a document of missed targets, and the GDP has fallen back inevitably. The economy is to post a growth of 5.5% in the April-June period in order to meet the benchmark of 2.7%, as the projections are still lower than the 3.6% target. This makes it the third successive year for the government to miss its targets. The pre-budget annexure confirms that the economy has been in doldrums and the dispensation has, somehow, managed to keep it afloat through monetary control and changing projections off and on. The finance minister, unveiling the survey yesterday, cited the global economic outlook and noted that GDP growth was estimated to decline to 2.8% in FY25 from 3.5% two years ago. He, however, sounded confident that 2.7% growth for the outgoing fiscal year was in the wings.

Surprisingly a week ago, the government had boasted high-profile projections hoping to see the growth rate at 4.2% for the next fiscal year. This was done in the wake of the revision of targets by international lenders that saw the economy going down, as the targets for the FY25 were missed and the economy performed at 2.68%. This happened in the backdrop of the agrarian sector posting a mere 0.56% growth, and all other production units struggling to post a mere break-even. As the federal budget for FY26 is unveiled today, tax collection target is likely to swell to Rs16 trillion, unsurprisingly at the cost of commoners and salaried class, in a society that is under elite capture.

The survey, interestingly, points out that agriculture played a 'sustainable role' in FY25 in ensuring food security, accounting for 23.54% of the GDP and employing over 37% of the labour force. Likewise, the statistics are encouraging with the livestock sector expanding at 4.72%, and fisheries and forestry at 1.42% and 3.03%, respectively. Construction and real estate grew by 3.8%; electricity, gas and water by 6.6%; automobiles by 40%; and wearable apparels by 8%. However, the plum export industry of textiles posted a meagre growth of only 2%; and where small-scale manufacturing grew by 1.3%, large-scale manufacturing rather contracted.