Why America is losing ground

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Statistics are one part of the changing American story. The other include serious cultural backlash against people of colour and those who follow religious faiths that are different from Christianity. Taken together these factors are changing the American landscape. I will first provide some numbers.

For decades America led the world in achieving excellence that made it world leader. In 2024, the year Donald Trump won the second term as US president, Americans spent $1 trillion — about 3.5% of the country's gross domestic product — on research and development. A large proportion of this came from the government and was focused on basic research and its application. This put America on the top of scientific and technological advance.

The government's share in total expenditure was 40%. The remaining 60% came from private enterprises that relied on universities and research institutions to supply the knowledge they needed. Even IBM that spent a lot of money on research brought in the best and the brightest to work in its laboratories, gave significant amounts of money to private universities and research institutions.

Not only the very best in terms of talent from different parts of the world were attracted to America to learn and acquire skills, a large proportion of them did not return to their home countries. They stayed in the United States working in jobs and opportunities that were not available in the countries of their origin.

Social scientists came up with a term that described the type of flow of talent from the rest of the world to the United States. They called it "brain drain". However, the drain began to dry up when Trump won the presidency for the second time in 2024. He brought in Elon Musk, the billionaire reputed to be the richest man in the world to sit by his side. Originally from South Africa, Musk made money by creating a new motor vehicle that ran on electric power.

He also did a number of innovative things related to space exploration. His 'Starlink' programme features thousands of satellites in orbits close to Earth which became critical contributors to communication. The GPS system we use to move around in our vehicles in the cities in which we live is the product of Musk's innovations.

However, the Trump-Musk team made it difficult for talented people across the globe to get visas to enter the United States for study and training or to stay on in the country once they were done with their studies and training.

Denied the opportunity to stay and work in the United States, many returned to their home countries. "This is once-in-a-century brain gain opportunity," the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said in a statement meant to draw the attention of the authorities in his country.

The Institute wished the Government of Australia to take advantage of the changing situation in the United States. But Australia was not the only country in the West to move in the direction of "brain gain".

In early May, more than a dozen members of the European Union announced that together they would spend an additional $556 million over the next two years to "make Europe a magnet for researchers". This is a small amount compared to what the United States was spending up until now. In France, for instance, a 35-year old researcher could expect to earn around $4,000 a month before taxes.

A post-doctoral fellow at Stanford University California can expect to earn nearly $7,000 a month, 75% more than his counterpart would take home in France. But Europe's more generous social safety net can make up for a large part of the salary differential, according to Patrick Lemaire, the president of a think-tank based in Paris. His institution is an arm of an international council that represents about 50,000 academics in France.

"There is much less money in Europe, and the salaries are much lower," he said. "But you also have very good social security and health care, which is free; school and tuition are free." On top of this America was seen as less-welcoming compared to the situation prior to Trump-Musk. There are good reasons why we are seeing "brain gain" rather than "brain drain".

What the academics are finding it difficult to understand is why Trump and his associates have come down so hard on institutions such as Harvard, Stanford and Columbia. Some of this is being done to appease the Jewish lobby in the United States which is upset at what it sees as open anti-Semitism among student bodies in these and other institutions.

Even a well-endowed institution such as Harvard is suffering because of the massive reduction in the flow of funds from the Government to the University. Trump has threatened to withdraw tax exemption for the university from its earnings from its large endowment. There is budding consensus among experts and academics that various Trump policies would hurt America, especially its future and leadership in the world.

America is also being hurt by the demographic transition that has begun to affect the size of its population along with that of other nations in the West. China is also experiencing the same phenomenon. This is happening because the rate of human fertility has fallen below 2.1 per woman, called the "replacement rate" demographers.

Above the rate, population continues to increase; below it declines in size. Pakistan is an example of a country where the fertility is well above the replacement rate. Decline in the size of the population means that it is ageing. The proportion of the youth in the population is declining. But young people are needed to keep economic and social dynamism.

This can happen if immigrants are allowed. The countries that have high replacement rates have people of colour; most of them are non-Christians. Large migrations would change the colour of its population and bring non-Christians into the country. This is not acceptable to the majority of the country's population.