Wheat always seems to be under some scandal or crisis in Pakistan – from unnecessary imports and rampant smuggling to even the bizarre claims of stocks getting devoured by rats. Yet, little to no serious efforts can be seen to find sustainable solutions. Wheat is the primary staple food for millions in Pakistan and its shortage not only threatens national food security but also socioeconomic stability.
According to the recent projections by the Ministry of Finance, Pakistan's wheat output in 2025 is expected to drop to 27.9 million metric tonnes (MMT) as compared to the record output of 31.4 MMT in the previous year, accounting for an overall 11% decline. One of the primary reasons behind this shortfall is the prolonged dry spell that has led to water shortages in both rain-fed and irrigated areas.
However, there are other compounding factors as well such as the lack of a clear policy on pricing and procurement of yield, uncertain market trends and deregulation of the wheat market. As a result of these developments, the incentives for farmers to grow wheat are diminishing, ultimately leading to domestic shortage, high bread prices and increased import bills.
The leading driver of this year's yield deficit is an acute water shortage created by a protracted dry spell and depleting reservoirs. In February 2025, the Ministry of Finance had given a warning about the dropping yield of Rabi crops in Pakistan due to delayed winter rainfall and increasing temperatures.
Recently, the Pakistan Meteorological Department has placed three provinces of Pakistan (Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan) on a drought alert. Water reservoirs in Tarbela and Mangla, both considered key sources of irrigation in the country, are also nearing depletion.
Moreover, the absence of a clear policy on pricing and procurement of wheat has also contributed to a diminishing trust of farmers. To meet the conditions of deregulated markets placed by IMF, the government abandoned the traditional approach of announcing Minimum Support Price (MSP) in 2025. Thus, farmers did not have any advance guarantees about the procurement of their produce.
Moreover, provincial governments also place restrictions on the free movement of wheat to achieve procurement targets. As a result, farmers cannot access competitive markets and thus are further discouraged from growing wheat. The government of Punjab has recently lifted this ban; however, such incentives are more effective in the planting months (October-December) rather than the harvesting season (April-June).
Shortage in the domestic supply of wheat directly impacts Pakistan's food security as the crop constitutes around 60% of the population's daily diet. Moreover, wheat is also cultivated on around 36% of the fertile land in Pakistan. Therefore, sustainable and affordable supply of this grain is of paramount importance for food security as 82% of households in the country struggle to afford a healthy diet and half of their monthly expenditures are dedicated to food.
In addition, per capita annual wheat consumption in Pakistan declined from 112 kg to 84 kg in 2023-24, indicating the dietary compromises being made.
There is a need to understand that deregulation of the wheat market without safety nets would only exacerbate the crisis. Punjab government has announced a Rs15 billion relief package for wheat farmers that includes direct financial support through Kisan Cards, irrigation tax relief, subsidised loans and free access to warehouse facilities.
While this package could be helpful in stabilising the market and addressing the immediate concerns of small and medium farmers, there is a need to adopt long-term measures to ensure sustainable food and socioeconomic security. These long-term measures include a shift from MSP to targeted subsidies on seeds, fertilisers and water supply. Moreover, research and development of climate-resilient crops is the need of the hour. Lastly, Pakistan needs to gradually decrease its nutritional overreliance on wheat to improve soil fertility, public health and economic sustainability.
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