Inflated sales projection for high-speed diesel by the regulator has put Pakistan's largest oil refinery, Pak Arab Refinery Limited (Parco), in a critical situation as its stocks have piled up to an all-time high due to low purchases from oil marketing companies (OMCs).
The high demand estimate has created room for oil importing firms, which is putting pressure on local refineries. According to refineries, crude oil stocks have swelled to 386,000 metric tons due to low purchases of refined products.
Parco – a joint venture between Pakistan and Abu Dhabi, is in trouble as its high-speed diesel stocks have accumulated to 100,000 tons.
Under the law, OMCs are required to purchase first the local products of refineries. But the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) has allowed two OMCs the import of four oil cargoes per month.
Ogra estimates a higher demand for diesel, resulting in an increase in imports and a decrease in consumption of local products.
Sources said that the oil industry projected sales of 550,000 tons of diesel for March 2025, but Ogra put the estimate at 601,300 tons. According to the data of OMCs, total diesel sales tood at 487,000 tons in the month, causing trouble to the refineries, which now have large unsold stocks.
In the case of petrol, Ogra projected that consumer demand would be 628,250 metric tons in March but actual sales came in at 577,000 tons. This has prompted refineries and Ogra to engage in talks to bind OMCs to lift the local oil products.
Pakistan's OMCs recorded sales of 1.2 million tons in March 2025, up 5% year-on-year (YoY) and 7% month-on-month (MoM). The MoM rise was fuelled by a low base effect, while the YoY increase was supported by reduced petrol and diesel prices compared to last year.
Total sales for 9MFY25 reached 11.77 million tons, reflecting a 4% YoY increase compared to 11.34 million tons in 9MFY24. Excluding furnace oil, sales in March were 1.16 million tons, higher by 5% YoY and 7% MoM. For 9MFY25, ex-furnace oil sales totaled 11.25 million tons, up 7% YoY.
Motor spirit sales increased 1% YoY and 4% MoM to 577,000 tons in March. Similarly, high-speed diesel sales rose 5% YoY and 14% MoM to 487,000 tons.
In the month under review, furnace oil sales went up 22% YoY and 2% MoM to 54,000 tons. High octane blending component (HOBC) sales continued to climb, hitting another all-time high at 35,000 tons, driven by discounted prices at selected petrol stations and a lower petroleum development levy (PDL). Later, the PDL on HOBC was increased by Rs20 per litre, effective from April.
Among listed entities, Attock Petroleum recorded sales of 105,000 tons in March 2025, up 2% YoY and 3% MoM, primarily due to an 11% YoY and 14% MoM rise in high-speed diesel sales. Attock's market share came in at 8.48% for petrol and 8.97% for diesel.
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a 14% YoY decline, though MoM sales rose 9% to 510,000 tons in March. Its market share for diesel and petrol stood at 38.92% and 43.08%, up 148 basis points and 29 basis points MoM, respectively.
Wafi Energy reported a 7% YoY decline in sales, though MoM supplies rose 5% to 88,000 tons. Hascol Petroleum's sales stood at 50,000 tons, up 95% YoY and 16% MoM.
The government has set a PDL collection target of Rs1.28 trillion for FY25, of which Rs817 billion (64%) has been received in 9MFY25, Topline Research said.
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