Quantum apocalypse – Is Pakistan ready?

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Imagine waking up in a world where all the private data, chats, banking transactions, and even state secrets suddenly get exposed. Such an event is ominously called the ‘Quantum Apocalypse’ or ‘Q-Day’. With recent developments in the field of quantum computing, including the launch of Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip or China’s Zuchongzhi 3.0, the world might rapidly be approaching Q-Day. Engineers at META have already warned that the quantum apocalypse is coming.

Such an event could occur when quantum computers become powerful enough to break all existing encryption methods. The current encryption methods like Rivest, Shamir, and Adleman (RSA), Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) and Digital Signature Algorithm (DSA) rely on complex mathematical patterns that are unsolvable for classical computers.

However, quantum computers would be able to solve these problems within hours using quantum algorithms such as Shor’s algorithm. Traditional computing processes information in binary bits, which either represent 1 or 0 at one point.

However, quantum computing processes information by using quantum bits, also known as qubits. These qubits simultaneously exist in multiple states, a phenomenon called superposition. As a result, quantum computers have an exponentially faster computing speed than classical computers.

However, for the past three decades, quantum computing suffered one major problem - errors. Measuring quantum data is particularly challenging as it is inherently unstable. However, last year, Google solved that problem with Project Willow.

Such breakthroughs in quantum computing could have revolutionary applications for every field, including medicine, finance, Artificial Intelligence (AI), climate modelling etc. However, advancements in quantum computing could also bring the world closer to Q-Day. In 2023, governmental agencies in the United States issued a warning about the possibility of a quantum apocalypse and called for ‘quantum readiness’.

So, the big question is - is the world ready for Q-Day? Or more importantly, where do countries in the developing world, such as Pakistan, stand in terms of quantum readiness?

Pakistan follows international cryptographic standards and protocols related to encryption methods. In this regard, National Telecommunication and Information Technology Security Board (NTISB) plays a central role. On 14 June 2023, NTISB issued Pakistan Security Standard (PSS) for Cryptographic & IT Security (ITSec) Devices, which outlined specific cryptographic requirements for adoption and evaluation, including secure algorithms like Advanced Encryption Standard (AES), Triple Data Encryption Standard (3DES), and RSA.

However, a quantum apocalypse would render these conventional cryptographic standards obsolete. Therefore, for Pakistan, the key challenges related to quantum readiness emanate from lack of indigenous quantum research, scarce talent development, and over-reliance on foreign quantum tech.

Pakistan has a thriving Information Technology (IT) industry, however, when it comes to quantum computing, the country is still playing catch-up. In 2024, Pakistan’s Ministry for Planning Development and Special Initiatives announced establishment of a National Centre for Quantum Computing.

However, the pace of indigenous quantum research remains slow. On the other hand, relying on foreign quantum tech could have adverse consequences for national security. States or companies that are currently leading in quantum technologies could easily embed backdoors in their infrastructures, which could be a grave national security risk. Therefore, developing home-grown quantum infrastructure is of paramount importance.

Pakistan is already facing considerable cybersecurity challenges, including phishing, ransomware, and data breaches. With advancements in quantum computing, these threats may escalate further, as emerging technologies could render current encryption methods obsolete.

On top of that, malicious actors are now using ‘Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL)’ strategies which involve harvesting and storing data today to decrypt them once quantum computers become powerful enough.

Given the rapid advancements in quantum technology, particularly in conjunction with AI, the prospect of a ‘quantum apocalypse’ is more a matter of ‘when,’ not ‘if.’ Pakistan has a narrow but crucial window to prepare for this eventuality.

Global powers such as the US, China, and countries in the European Union (EU) are already investing in Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) and Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). Pakistan must also expedite integration of these technologies into its critical systems to remain secure in a post-quantum era.

Moreover, Pakistan could also lead efforts for the establishment of a regional alliance aimed at achieving quantum readiness by sharing knowledge, resource and strategies. Finally, Pakistan should also collaborate with the leading global powers in quantum computing in order to create a local pool of talent on quantum readiness.