The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) enjoyed a bullish rally in the outgoing week, where the KSE-100 index surpassed the record 119,000 mark during intra-day trading.
Investor sentiment remained upbeat, fueled by optimism about an imminent staff-level agreement between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). On a day-on-day basis, the PSX started the week by notching up significant gains as the KSE-100 index reached the intra-day high of nearly 1,100 points before settling with an increase of 663 points.
On Tuesday, the bourse maintained its bullish momentum, driven by strong investor interest in the wake of unfolding economic developments. The index closed up 801 points compared to the previous day. Next day, the market soared to an all-time high at 117,974 as it extended the winning streak, gaining 973 points, on the back of robust local institutional buying and potential resolution of the longstanding circular debt problem.
The KSE-100 index surged past the 119,000 milestone in intra-day movements on Thursday, maintaining its winning streak for the sixth straight day and advancing 796 points to a new record high. However, on the last trading day of the week, the stock market ended its six-day rally with a drop of 328 points. The index came under pressure following the government's decision to raise profit rates on National Saving Schemes (NSS) in line with the status quo maintained by the monetary policy committee (MPC).
The KSE-100 index closed just shy of the highest-ever level at 118,442, depicting a surge of 2,906 points, or 2.5% week-on-week (WoW). Arif Habib Limited (AHL), in its weekly commentary, wrote that the KSE-100 index remained jubilant during the week, when it crossed the 119k level during intra-day trading on Thursday.
Market sentiment was supported by expectations of a staff-level agreement between Pakistan and the IMF for the first EFF review, which would pave the way for disbursement of the second tranche of $1.1 billion. In addition to this, the IMF shared a draft of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies with the government, which signalled progress in negotiations.
Furthermore, the potential settlement of power-sector circular debt charged up the overall environment. The IMF has given its nod to the government for recalibrating the tax collection target for FY25 to Rs12.35 trillion (down from Rs12.97 trillion).
On the economic front, the current account deficit contracted 97% month-on-month (MoM) to $12 million in February 2025. Meanwhile, large-scale manufacturing (LSM) industries shrank 1.2% year-on-year (YoY) in January. The State Bank's foreign currency reserves climbed up $49 million to $11.1 billion. Sector-wise, the positive contribution came from exploration & production (E&P, 1,086 points), technology (416 points), power (273 points), oil marketing companies (213 points) and cement (202 points). Meanwhile, the sectors that contributed negatively were fertiliser (105 points) and insurance (6 points), AHL said.
Foreigners' selling continued during the week, which came in at $7.96 million compared to net selling of $2.61 million last week. Major selling was witnessed in commercial banks ($2.9 million), followed by E&P ($2.3 million). Average trading volumes arrived at 508 million shares (up 51% WoW) while average traded value stood at $112 million (up 43%), it added.
JS Global analyst Abdul Basit, in its report, said the KSE-100 gained 2.5% WoW and closed above 118.4k. He pointed out that the week commenced with the completion of IMF mission's visit to Pakistan for the first EFF review, though a staff-level agreement was awaited.
Pakistan was also in the process of securing an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) with the IMF for additional financing to address the impact of climate change.
Meanwhile, he said, the government was planning a reduction in power tariff up to Rs8 per kilowatt-hour, mainly driven by revisions in contracts of independent power producers. Additionally, the government kept petroleum prices unchanged, offsetting the impact of lower ex-refinery prices while increasing the petroleum development levy by Rs10 to Rs70 per litre.
In T-bills' auction, the government raised Rs392 billion against the target of Rs800 billion, where yields remained mostly flat with a slight increase in 12-month papers, the JS analyst added.
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