Kyiv's compliance

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As expected, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has bowed to US pressure, agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia in exchange for the resumption of American military aid and intelligence sharing. The writing was on the wall the moment Trump returned to power. His administration made it clear that Ukraine could no longer rely on a blank check from Washington. Instead, aid would come with conditions - chief among them, a willingness to negotiate with Moscow.

More importantly, it sends a message to European allies that the US will not indefinitely foot the bill for Ukraine's defence. This shift has left Kyiv with no option but to follow Washington's lead, even at the risk of appearing weak in the eyes of both its allies and adversaries. It is clear that Trump's 'America First' agenda has reshaped the rules of engagement, seeking a de-escalation that allows the US to reduce its direct involvement without appearing to abandon Ukraine altogether. Zelenskyy has little choice in the matter following a tense episode at the White House that ended in a diplomatic standoff last month. While Trump has expressed hope that Moscow will agree to the ceasefire, early signs suggest that at least it's not going to happen immediately. Russia has continued its offensives, and Vladimir Putin has yet to make any binding commitments. While the Kremlin has acknowledged the proposal, it has expressed the need for more detailed information – like on Ukraine's Nato pursuit – before committing to a cessation of hostilities. This hesitation casts doubt on the plans effectiveness and suggests that Moscow may be leveraging the situation to extract further concessions.

However, if Moscow refuses to halt attacks altogether, Ukraine will have weakened its own position on the battlefield, and the ceasefire agreement may end up as nothing more than a strategic trap - one that benefits Russia and the US at the expense of Ukraine's long-term security.