Trump declines to rule out 2025 US recession

President Donald Trump declined Sunday to rule out the possibility that the United States might enter a recession this year.

"I hate to predict things like that," he told a Fox News interviewer when asked directly about a possible recession in 2025.

"There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big -- we're bringing wealth back to America," he said, adding, "It takes a little time."

Trump's commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more definitive when asked Sunday about the possibility of a recession.

"Absolutely not," he told NBC's "Meet the Press" when asked whether Americans should brace for a downturn.

Trump's on-again, off-again tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring.

Stock markets just ended their worst week since the November election.

Measures of consumer confidence are down, as shoppers -- already battered by years of inflation -- brace for the higher prices that tariffs can bring.

And widespread government layoffs being engineered by Trump's billionaire advisor Elon Musk add further concern.

When asked later Sunday to clarify his remarks on whether there could be a recession, Trump told reports on Air Force One "Who knows?"

Overall, the signs are mixed.

A widely watched Atlanta Federal Reserve index now predicts a 2.4 percent contraction of real GDP growth in the year's first quarter, which would be the worst result since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.