In recent years India has extensively propagated the 'Made in India' narrative based on its doctrine of self-reliance. While an independent foreign policy is a pre-requisite for that, I doubt India enjoys one.
Developments that took place during the recent visits of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to the US have affirmed my doubts. The outcome of these visits shows that India is still facing difficulties in abandoning its neo-liberal inclinations mainly because of its ever-pervasive Atlanticist elite. Jaishankar has visited the US twice in recent times - first in December 2024 to meet the Trump team and more specifically NSA Michael Waltz; and then to attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 when he also met Secretary of State Marco Rubio. During the second visit, Jaishankar held a presser at the Indian Embassy in Washington and gave a clear message that India wanted the bilateral relationship with the US to go to a higher level, meaning that, India offered its strategic loyalty voluntarily.
To further consolidate that, PM Modi had a meeting with President Trump on February 13. Trump described it as a "good meeting" that discussed "two-way tariffs", but called India the biggest tariff abuser. India accepted a comprehensive strategic partnership, albeit claiming a victory out of it. Let's decipher the joint statement issued after the meeting. The statement has three main points - related to trade, energy, and defence.
1) Trade and reciprocal tariffs: the agreement means that the preferential treatment, which India enjoys as a developing country under WTO, is all out of the window. India has accepted that because it wants to dilute the $45 billion trade deficit which is understandable. Not just that, it has also accepted to raise the bilateral trade with the US to $500 billion by 2030. The same was $190 billion in 2023. This means in the next five years, India will be flooded with American products which will lead to high inflation and devaluation of the Indian rupee. But the most astonishing point is that India has also agreed to only trade in USD even with BRICS members. BRICS's prime function is to safeguard the world economy from trade, more precisely the dollar monopoly, and India is already doing trade with Russia in national currencies and by some other improvised methods. However, Modi desperately agreed with Trump to an unequal trade relationship compromising Atmanirbhar Bharat.
2) Energy: Trump has stated on multiple occasions that the US wants to sell more oil and gas to India. Currently, India is fulfilling 40% of its crude oil needs from Russia and the remaining 60% from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The US comes fifth, meaning minimalistic energy dependence on the US. According to Modi's recent 'triumphant' visit, this is going to be reversed. And this reversal is about energy as a whole, not just crude oil, because the Modi government has removed the liability clause on the nuclear reactor based on the Civil Nuclear Agreement 123 signed between the US and India. India is already buying small modular nuclear reactors from France and Russia. India has made tons of cash by refining and selling Russian oil and is now willfully withdrawing from that win-win situation. Expensive energy purchases from the US will not only affect the livelihood of ordinary Indians but will have regional diplomatic and trade implications also.
3) Defence: Rubio, when serving as senator, had proposed a US-India comprehensive defense cooperation bill. Apparently, a 10-year defence partnership has either been prepared or is in the works. India has to buy defence equipment from the US which is running short of buyers. Based on the hints dropped by the US, the EU also finds itself left with two choices: either manufacture on their own or buy from the US. India, meanwhile, has to buy F-35, Javelin, Striker combat vehicles and 404 and 414 engines. Leaving aside the peculiarities and looking at the holistic picture, India is savouring its all-season goodwill for Russia in the hope of becoming a regional hegemon. India must not forget that if the US is a bad enemy, it is an even worse ally. If history is no guide, India must contact Ukraine and the EU.
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