PSX remains bearish on trade war fears

Index sheds 810 points as Trump tariffs, oil slump, political uncertainty weigh

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KARACHI:

The bearish run continued at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday as the KSE-100 index erased over 800 points, primarily due to concerns over a global trade war following the announcement of President Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China coupled with a sharp decline in international crude oil prices.

Analysts pointed out that profit-taking, local political uncertainty and foreign fund outflows further contributed to the negative sentiment. The benchmark KSE-100 index hit the high of 113,649 points, before falling to the intra-day low of 111,828. It eventually settled at 111,935.

Although the market saw a decline, some analysts highlighted that it traded sideways and the passage of Sindh Agricultural Income Tax Bill in the provincial assembly along with a potential successful International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme review may be the key triggers for a positive outlook.

Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corp commented that stocks closed bearish on global trade war worries after the announcement of US tariffs and a slump in international crude oil prices. Political noise, rupee instability, suspension of US aid and foreign outflows played the role of catalysts in the bearish activity, he added.

At the close of trading, the benchmark KSE-100 index recorded a decrease of 809.63 points, or 0.72%, and settled at 111,935.38.

In its review, Topline Securities said that the stock market showed a negative performance, with the index hitting the high of 113,649 and slipping to the intra-day low of 111,828 before settling at 111,935. The decline was mainly due to local institutional selling, it said.

Topline noted that the drop was largely driven by Engro Holdings, Millat Tractors, Fauji Fertiliser Company, Bank AL Habib and Pakistan Petroleum, which together contributed 430 points to the loss.

Despite the downturn, the overall market activity remained strong, with 435 million shares traded and a total value of Rs23 billion.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) reported that the KSE-100 index returned back to the bottom end of the recent range as sideways trading continued.

Some 30 shares rose while 66 fell with Sazgar Engineering Works (+7.34%), National Bank of Pakistan (+3.7%) and TRG Pakistan (+3.89%) contributing the most to index gains. On the other hand, Millat Tractors (-4.51%), Fauji Fertiliser Company (-0.87%) and Bank Alfalah (-1.93%) were the biggest drags, it said.

AHL mentioned that provincial assemblies approved laws to impose taxes on the income of farmers, which would help expand the total tax collection. Agricultural tax is part of the IMF's conditions for its $7 billion loan programme.

Additionally, according to AHL, until the market breaks the range with authority, it is reasonable to expect the sideways choppy trading to continue. "The market should decide which way it wants to break following the Kashmir Day holiday."

JS Global analyst Muhammad Hasan Ather said the KSE-100 index dropped 0.7%, erasing the intra-day gains. The decline was attributed to profit-taking after a brief rebound and global market volatility, driven by President Trump's import duties, he said.

Ather added that the provincial assembly's passage of the Sindh Agricultural Income Tax Bill to meet the IMF requirement, along with the upcoming catalysts like a successful IMF programme review and a potential increase in MSCI weightage, could act as key triggers.

Overall trading volumes increased to 436.3 million shares compared with Monday's tally of 401.5 million. Shares of 440 companies were traded. Of these, 129 stocks closed higher, 255 fell and 56 remained unchanged.

WorldCall Telecom was the volume leader with trading in 54.6 million shares, falling Rs0.05 to close at Rs1.58. It was followed by Cnergyico PK with 21.1 million shares, falling Rs0.04 to close at Rs7.49 and K-Electric with 20.6 million shares, falling Rs0.01 to close at Rs4.43.

During the day, foreign investors bought shares worth Rs355.5 million, the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited (NCCPL) reported.