Abraham Accords-II?

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On the south lawns of White House on September 15, 2020, Israel, Bahrain and the UAE signed a landmark accord to establish diplomatic relations among them under the mediation of the then US President Donald Trump. Later Morocco and Sudan also recognised Israel, thus giving a wider legitimacy to the Jewish state under what is called Abraham Accords.

After taking oath as the US president for the second time on January 20, 2025, Trump expressed the hope that Saudi Arabia will also join Abraham Accords followed by other Arab and Muslim countries. After the ceasefire in Gaza and regime change in Damascus, the Trump administration is expected to go an extra mile to reach Abraham Accords-II which will further erode prospects of an independent and a viable Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

How did the Abraham Accords provide diplomatic and political space to Israel? And why did those opposing wider diplomatic recognition to the Jewish state decide to prevent its extension? It is argued that if Hamas had not launched the ferocious attacks Oct 7 on Israel, some Muslim countries were on the verge of granting recognition to the Jewish state.

The first Arab state to grant recognition to Israel was Egypt. And that happened under the Camp David Accords of 1978 and the Egypt-Israel peace treaty of 1979. In 1994, Jordan granted recognition to Israel. Prior to that, on September 13, 1993, PLO and Israel signed the historic Oslo Accords which paved the way for their mutual recognition. Had the Oslo process reached its logical conclusion by establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, Israel would have been recognised by an overwhelming majority of Muslim countries. But the manner in which the Oslo process was sabotaged by the Benjamin Netanyahu regime, a viable two-state solution which was also advocated by the US reached an impasse.

Netanyahu embarked on the policy of expanding Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank which tend to alter the demographics, undermining the Palestinian majority. After neutralising Gaza and West Bank, Israel now feel confident that it can deny a two-state solution. During the Trump's first term as president, the US shifted its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and provided Israel unprecedented diplomatic support by sponsoring Abraham Accords in September 2020. In his second term, the Trump administration will attempt to arrange Abraham Accords-II to pave the way for diplomatic recognition to Israel by certain Arab and African states. Further down the road, key Muslim countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia will also be lured to grant diplomatic recognition to Israel. If a majority of Muslim countries recognise Israel, it will invalidate the OIC stance that without the formation of an independent Palestinian state, Israel cannot be granted diplomatic recognition.

All that means that despite massacring more than 50,000 Palestinians in Gaza after October 7, 2023, Israel's legitimacy would remain unchallenged and an independent Palestinian state would remain an elusive dream.

The implications of possible Abraham Accords-II need to be analysed from three angles.

First, if Muslim countries grant recognition to Israel without the formation of an independent and a viable Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, it would mean a 'great betrayal' to a cause. Since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war in which Israel occupied Sinai desert and Gaza (which were under the Egyptian control), West Bank (which was under Jordanian control) and Golan Heights (a Syrian territory), one can observe erosion of Arab strength and declining demand for a Palestinian state. After decimating Gaza, granting recognition to the Jewish state would mean an end to the demand for a Palestinian state – something that would be tantamount to Israeli annexation of West Bank and Gaza. Even the US which was supportive of a two-state solution featuring Israel and Palestine living side by side is now deviating from its stance. Israel has for long rejected an independent Palestinian state and is now planning to maximise Jewish settlements in occupied West Bank and regain control over Gaza because billions of dollars of gas reserves are found in that territory.

Second, if Saudi Arabia recognises Israel, efforts will be made by the US that countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Libya and Algeria should follow suit. Presently, out of the 192 members of the UN, Israel has been recognised by 164 countries i.e. more than two-thirds of the UN strength. In 1948 when Israel was established, it was recognised by a handful of UN members but over the years it has managed to seek legitimacy particularly after the end of the Cold War in 1990. The debate in Pakistan on grant of diplomatic recognition to Israel has been going on for long, but Islamabad has made it clear that unless an independent Palestinian state is established with East Jerusalem as its capital, it will not grant recognise Israel. But, a diplomatic recognition of Israel by major Muslim powers may change the situation. Even then, given the sensitive nature of the issue and negative public opinion on recognising Israel, it will be an uphill task for Islamabad to make such a decision.

Finally, the possibility of an Abraham Accords-II also rests with the fate of the Netanyahu government and the outcome of the ceasefire in Gaza. If there is a new government in Israel – one which is not ruthless like Netanyahu's and is amenable to a two-state solution – the Trump administration will certainly push major Muslim powers to grant recognition to Israel. Otherwise, under the prevailing conditions that feature West Bank and Gaza facing Israeli onslaught, striving for an Abraham Accords-II will prove to be counterproductive.

The onus is on the Muslim world to effectively resist the Israel-US nexus to deny Palestinians their right to statehood.