The year 2024 was unique in two ways: first, elections were held in the most populous countries like India, the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh; and second, regime change took place in Bangladesh and Syria. Issues like climate change, Ukrainian attacks inside Russia and the ongoing carnage in Gaza also figured notably during the year 2024.
The victory of Donald Trump in November 2024 presidential elections - despite his loss in re-election after his first term in office as well as several cases of fraud and hush money against him - is a landmark event which will not only influence the US but the world at large. When Trump will take oath on January 20, 2025, he is expected to take drastic measures ranging from curbing illegal immigration, ending the war in Ukraine and reversing the Biden administration policies in countries like Russia and Pakistan. With the US suffering from a debt of around 30 trillion dollars and other such issues, the Trump administration will have to struggle with managing a huge military expenditure of around 900 billion dollars.
For the world to transform positively in 2025, the world leadership will have to focus on the grave dangers like environment, demography, energy, food, water, etc, instead of pursuing their power ambitions. Can the Trump administration play a leadership role to effectively deal with the aforementioned challenges or it will focus on pursuing an inward approach about issues pertaining to NATO? Certainly, unlike the 2016 presidential election, this time, Trump has selected his team earlier; and since it will be his last chance in the White House, he will move faster regardless of ramifications of his policies.
The regime change in Syria and Bangladesh in 2024 will have far-reaching implications in the Middle East and South Asia respectively. The oppressive regime of Bashar al-Assad and the civil war in Syria since 2011 devastated the lives of millions of people and destabilised a part of the Middle East. The return of peace, stability and sanity in Syria, by forming an inclusive government, would auger well for the region as a whole provided the mafias which since 2011 played with the lives of people are neutralised and international players also cooperate in giving a break to years of violence.
Conspiracy theories circulate that the regime change in Syria was planned to deprive Iran of its strategic ally and Hamas its principal backers, but the new set-up in Damascus, despite its several fault lines, is determined to establish peace and an inclusive government. As a major casualty of the Arab Spring, Syria experienced years of bloodshed and tyranny under Assads. Now, one can expect that the situation will ameliorate in Syria and the neighbouring countries will also benefit from peace.
The regime change in Bangladesh, following weeks of violent student protests against the oppressive policies of Sheikh Hasina, will have far-reaching ramifications in South Asia. Not only did India lose an age-old ally, but the collapse of Hasina's regime in Bangladesh also opened new opportunities for mending fences with Pakistan. It is the second time in the last 50 years that India has faced a debacle in Dhaka. First in August 1975 when President and Founder of Bangladesh Sheikh Mujibur Rehman was assassinated along with most of his family members by his own military. Indira Gandhi, the then Indian Prime Minister, was shocked to hear about the bloody events in Dhaka and had to restrain taking a military action against those who had killed Mujib. And now after around 50 years, India faced another debacle when Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Mujibur Rehman, was forced to flee Dhaka in an army helicopter to India on August 6, 2024 when thousands of people were to storm the Prime Minister House. On a call from the Bangladeshi Army Chief, Hasina was given half an hour to either face the situation or leave the country. She decided to flee India and since then the regime change in Bangladesh is a source of major predicament for New Delhi, which is also faced with calls for her extradition.
How the world can transform itself in 2025 needs to be analysed from three angles.
First is the possibility of a rift within G-7 following assumption of power in the US by Trump. If the US undermines NATO and mends its fences with Russia over Ukraine, the outcome will be rupture in the Atlantic alliance which will invariably benefit Moscow and Beijing. During his election campaign, Trump had claimed that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of assuming power, but he failed to explain how he would accomplish that objective. During the Biden administration, damage control measures were adopted vis-à-vis NATO and the US again consolidated its ties with the Atlantic alliance which had suffered a setback under Trump. Populism will surely get an impetus in 2025 because of Trump's possible drive against immigrants and his anti-Muslim rhetoric. In that case, one can see rise of populism in America and in the West as advocated by the world's richest person Alan Musk, thus galvanising a polarised culture.
Second, if peace, stability and inclusive mode of governance get an impetus in Syria, one can expect a positive change in the Middle East. Even Iran has supported the formation of a stable government in Damascus. The challenge in the Middle East comes in the form of the Israeli policy of continuing with attacks on Gaza and consolidating its position in the occupied Golan Heights - something that shows how in coming weeks the US and Israel will try to mitigate the influence of Iran in the region. Trump's support which he got from Arab-Americans and Muslim-Americans in the 2024 election depends on pursuing a neutral and anti-war approach in Gaza. But, it may be a wishful thinking to expect Trump to take a pro-peace approach to end the war in Gaza because it will contradict with Israel's policy to annihilate Hamas.
Third, a paradigm shift in the Pakistan-Bangladesh relations, following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, will have profound implications on the South Asian politics in 2025. For India to lose a trusted ally in the form of Sheikh Hasina is being perceived as a great loss. Now, in order to further isolate the Modi regime, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and possibly Sri Lanka will exert pressure over New Delhi to revive the SAARC process. Yet, Bangladesh may not be able to neutralise the Indian influence because of its heavy dependence on New Delhi for economic and geographical reasons and the RAW's entrenched role in Dhaka.
For Pakistan the events of 2024 will have negative implications in 2025 unless efforts are made by the government and the opposition to mend fences and proceed for an inclusive mode of governance so that real issues plaguing the country are at least managed, if not resolved.
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