America’s political landscape

Ceding political initiative to opponents, Obama has been pushed into compromises that upset his core constituency.

The past few weeks in the US have been more eventful than earlier visits. For a nation in the midst of a huge economic crisis, the last thing it needed was to be hit by an earthquake, a hurricane and floods, all in quick succession, which only deepened national gloom.

Americans returned from their summer vacations confused and concerned about Washington’s divisive partisan politics, their frustration and anger with both parties palpable. This radically transformed political landscape has raised fundamental questions about President Barack Obama’s leadership abilities, boosting Republican confidence that they could win back the White House, while making them more intransigent and unwilling to work with the president. The presidential race though, over a year away, has already occupied centre stage, having been seized by Republicans to hammer away at a beleaguered president, who appears shorn of the magnetism that brought him into the White House. Having ceded political initiative to his opponents, he has been pushed into compromises that have upset his core constituency, without evoking reciprocal gestures. Pessimism with the economic direction has pushed the president’s approval ratings to a record low, making his re-election prospect a hard-fought contest.

While there are still half a dozen declared Republicans in the race, it is becoming increasingly a contest between former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and current Texas Governor Rick Perry. Thanks to the strong support from the party’s conservative, evangelical right wing, Perry, who enjoys the reputation of being an aggressive and combative campaigner, has surged ahead of his rivals.

In their national debate on September 7, the Republicans did not shy away from criticising each other, but their venom and anger was directed primarily at Obama’s policies. Nevertheless, some of their pronouncements sound so bizarre that it could drive away the independents that play a critical role in any election. For example, Perry believes that human activity has nothing to do with global warming, dismissing abundantly available scientific data. He is also convinced that the Social Security scheme, a national safety net for decades, is “a monstrous lie” and a “Ponzi scheme”. But even Romney envisions a smaller, less effective federal government, claiming that the federal budget can be put on a sustainable footing without new tax revenue, while keeping in place the Bush tax cuts. In foreign policy, he favours imposing sanctions on China, allegedly for currency manipulation.

The other significant development is the way the country has changed, particularly since 9/11, as evident from the huge expansion in and increased influence of the military and intelligence agencies. This has set the tone of the debate on national security issues, even though the overwhelming majority is neither aware of nor interested in foreign policy issues. The country has also become visibly more religious, with large numbers convinced that American culture — described as Judeo-Christian values — is threatened by hostile forces. This has also resulted in increased influence of the right-wing evangelicals in politics.  Finally, the exasperated Obama decided to take his case to the people in a nationally televised address to Congress on the September 9. His focus was the economy, more particularly his plan to create jobs and head off a second recession, by proposing a roughly $450 billion package. But it was also a bid to energise his presidency and an effort to frame the debate in ways that will enable him to pin the blame on the Republicans. Nevertheless, after a summer of debilitating acrimony with the Republican-controlled House, which led him to sign on to budgetary compromises that went against the basic philosophy espoused by the Democrats, Obama stands a much diminished figure.

The election is, however, still 14 months away, which is more than a lifetime in politics. If Obama can bring about even a small improvement in the economy, he will remain a formidable candidate, especially if the Republican nomination is won by a divisive politician, who would scare away the moderates and independents.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 14^th,  2011.