Nations to submit boosted climate plans: what's at stake?
This picture taken on November 12 shows a wind turbine at the lignite-fired power station operated by German energy giant RWE near Neurath, western Germany. — AFP
Nations have begun setting carbon-cutting targets for the decade ahead, and how ambitious these pledges are could make or break global efforts to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.
Nearly 200 countries are supposed to publish updated climate plans by early February, but so far only three have done so.
On Wednesday, the UK became the latest, announcing during the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan that it would raise its target to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
All eyes will be on other big polluters like China, India and the United States, though future US climate action is unclear following Donald Trump's election.
The world has agreed to try and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but is nowhere near on track.
Above this threshold, scientists say humanity risks disastrous consequences from volatile weather to major ecological "tipping points" at land and sea.
Last month, the United Nations warned that even if all existing plans are implemented in full, temperatures would rise 2.6C by the century's end, a catastrophic outcome.
The UN says the next round of climate plans must show a "quantum leap" in ambition to avert the worst.
The G20 -- which accounts for 77 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions -- is under particular pressure to step up.
Just before COP29 opened in Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates announced a 47 percent reduction in emissions by 2035 compared with 2019 in its updated climate plan.
Observers said the roadmap failed to account for exported emissions -- including those from its sales of crude oil abroad.
Next year's UN climate host, Brazil, has partly unveiled its plan, increasing its emissions reduction target from a 59 percent cut by 2035, from 2005 levels, to a 67 percent reduction.
It is expected to unveil a more complete plan during COP29.
Plans from other major emitters, like the European Union and China, are not expected until next year.
And the current US government could soon outline Washington's new pledge, despite questions over Trump following through once in office.
David Waskow, of the World Resources Institute, said it would help guide American cities, states and businesses wishing to continue climate action under Trump.