A recent report by John R. Lott Jr. from RealClearInvestigations has revealed that the FBI quietly revised its 2022 violent crime data, showing an increase in crime rather than a decrease.
Initially, the FBI reported in September 2023 that violent crime had dropped by 2.1% in 2022, a statistic used by many Democrats to counter claims by Donald Trump that crime was rising. However, revised figures now show violent crime increased by 4.5%, including more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
The FBI made no formal announcement regarding these changes, only noting on its website that the data had been updated. Researchers, like Carl Moody of the College of William & Mary, expressed concern about the significant revisions, stating that changes of this magnitude are unusual and unexplained. "It is up to the FBI to explain what they have done, and they haven’t explained these large changes," said Dr. Thomas Marvell, president of Justec Research.
The revised data shows that in 2022, there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021, including an additional 1,699 murders. This raises questions about the accuracy of the FBI’s 2023 crime statistics. Without the updated 2022 numbers, the 2023 drop in violent crime would be less significant, falling from a reported 3.5% to just 1.6%.
The FBI’s method of estimating crime figures involves extrapolating from partial-year reports and making estimates for cities that provide no data. Jeffrey Anderson, former head of the DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, criticized the FBI’s lack of transparency, stating that such significant changes should have been highlighted in a press release.
Compounding concerns about FBI crime data is the issue of underreporting. According to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), only 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes are reported to police, meaning the FBI’s data only reflects reported incidents. This gap complicates efforts to accurately track crime trends.
The NCVS also paints a different picture of crime in 2023. While the FBI reported a 3.5% drop in violent crime, the NCVS found a 4.1% increase. Moreover, the NCVS recorded a 29.1% rise in violent crime in 2022, far higher than the FBI’s revised 4.5% figure.
The lack of consistency between these datasets raises questions about how accurately the media portrays crime trends. The FBI’s initial report of a drop in crime was widely reported, with outlets like USA Today and NPR declaring that violent crime was falling. However, the newly revised numbers suggest otherwise, leaving the public and researchers concerned about the credibility of the FBI’s data.
David Mustard, a professor at the University of Georgia who specializes in crime research, called the FBI’s lack of transparency “stunning,” adding that the failure to issue a press release about the revisions harms the Bureau’s credibility. As crime continues to be a major concern for Americans, with polls showing a majority believe crime is rising, the accuracy of government crime data is crucial for understanding the real trends.
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