Occupied Kashmir elections and legitimacy crisis

In line with the Indian Supreme Court verdict several months ago, legislative elections were held in occupied Jammu & Kashmir - in three phases, from September 18 and October 1, with a voter turnout of 63.45%. The alliance of National Conference (NC) and Congress secured 50 seats out of 90; BJP bagged 29; and People's Democratic Party (PDP), which had won 28 seats in 2014 elections, could manage just 3. It's thus pretty clear that the NC-Congress alliance will form the government in the occupied region which will end more than five years of governor rule there. Omer Abdullah and other Kashmiri leaders who participated in the elections consider restoration of statehood essential for providing some form of legitimacy to the upcoming government in Srinagar. For them, union territory of J&K will not be a substitute for statehood which was revoked by scrapping article 370 of the Indian constitution.

If Omer Abdullah becomes the Chief Minister of occupied J&K, one can expect easing of polarisation between Srinagar and Delhi because his party pursues a balanced approach. After winning elections from two constituencies, Omer Abdullah said, "The new government in J&K cannot afford an antagonistic relationship with the Central government. Once the new government is in place, whoever the chief minister of J-K is, I would expect them to travel to Delhi to meet the PM, the home minister and other leaders to impress upon them that the mandate of the people of J-K was for restoration of statehood, was for development and peace."

Now the real power game in the occupied Kashmir has begun with NC, Congress and BJP being the major players. Mahbooba Mufti's PDP, which had formed the government after the 2014 elections, will remain sidelined this time, as it has only 3 seats. The hard task for the future government of NC-Congress will be how to pull J&K from New Delhi's direct control and restore statehood. A report - sourced by the Press Trust of India and published in The Hindu of October 8, 2024 - quoted Congress General Secretary in-charge communications Jairam Ramesh as saying, "The priority for the alliance government will be the restoration of full statehood for the UT of J&K. Of course, we have our manifestos, and will have a common program. Both Congress and National Conference are duty bound to give a government, an administration that is responsible, responsive, accountable and transparent to the people of Jammu and Kashmir."

Furthermore, in an exclusive interview with The Hindu, Omer Abdullah said, "J&K will not benefit from an antagonistic and confrontational approach. J&K has far too many problems to just play politics for the next five years. The incoming government must have a healthy relationship with the Government of India. I hope the Union Government has the same sentiment and recognizes the fact that J&K is at a crucial stage currently. We will not be playing politics with this relationship."

Whatever claimed, there are serious some questions warranting answers. Will the upcoming government in Srinagar be legitimate and enjoy the support of the majority of people? Will the Modi regime accept the NC-Congress government demand to restore statehood in J&K? To what extent, will militancy and violence diminish in the Indian occupied J&K?

The revocation of article 370 by the Modi regime on August 5, 2019 under the cover of Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act unleashed a reign of terror, particularly in the Muslim-dominated Valley of Kashmiri, with the imposition of curfew, lockdown, extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, forced detentions and closure of internet. After a few years of repression, New Delhi, by organising an international tourism conference in the disputed state, started propagating that the situation was getting normal.

The dynamics of legitimacy crisis in the occupied J&K needs to be analysed from three sides.

First, the elections featuring a high voter turnout will definitely provide a semblance of legitimacy to the new government in Srinagar. Through the absorption of J&K into the Indian Union as a union territory, New Delhi assumed direct control on the occupied state. The Indian Supreme on December 11, 2023 upheld the revocation of article 370 but bound the Indian government to arrange legislative elections in the disputed state by September 30, 2024. As the elections have been held in compliance with the Supreme Court verdict, the upcoming government will not be seen as a New Delhi puppet. The turnout reflected that a majority of the registered voters participated in polls and rejected the politics of violence and boycott. How far the future government in Srinagar will get support from New Delhi is yet to be seen because under the union territory framework, the issue of restoring statehood will remain a source of conflict between the central government and the local government.

Second, even if India succeeds in neutralising the freedom movement in J&K, it will continue to face legitimacy crisis because it has failed to abide by the UNSC resolutions of 1948 and 1949 which called for holding free and fair plebiscite to determine whether the people of J&K, like other princely states of the undivided India, want to accede to India or Pakistan. Merely under the pretext that the UNSC resolutions also called for the withdrawal of Pakistani forces from J&K and allowed retaining a fraction of Indian forces, New Delhi cannot question the age-old legal basis of the Kashmir conflict. India had initially accepted both the resolutions but later on reneged on its commitment. Article 370 of the Indian constitution - which granted special status to J&K - was violated by the successive Indian governments. Such violations culminated into the August 5, 2019 J&K Reorganization Act to annex Jammu & Kashmir into the Indian Union, thus deepening the legitimacy crisis.

Finally, merely holding local assembly elections will not provide any legitimacy to what is, by any definition, New Delhi's occupation of the disputed state through the deployment of more than 600,000 troops and denial of basic human rights. India cannot win the hearts and minds of the people no matter whatever it does in the name of infrastructural development and tourism promotion. The only way out of the longstanding impasse is the restoration of full statehood of J&K, leading to a final settlement based on the will of the people of the Indian and Pakistani controlled J&K. Had Pakistan been in a better position politically, economically and governance-wise, it would have definitely been a source of strength for the people of Kashmir.