Elections in IIOJK: what next?

Results of the three-phase elections held in the Indian illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) were announced last week. It was the first vote since 2014 and after the abrogation of special status of the disputed territory. The state assembly elections, called a sham by Pakistan, were held on the direction of the Indian Supreme Court. Being the first state assembly elections after the repeal of Kashmir's special status, it was seen as a referendum on the Modi government's policies. The BJP government had claimed that the revocation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution brought normalcy, investment and prosperity in the occupied territory. Elections were the first test case of those claims and how the people in the region viewed Modi's policies. Also, the BJP wanted to see a first Hindu Chief Minister of the only Muslim-majority state under New Delhi's control.

Election results, however, showed that the BJP's dream remained unfulfilled as it could only win 29 seats, far short of the simple majority needed to form the government. The party got 4 more seats than in 2014 elections but that was not the result the BJP wanted. The latest polls, meanwhile, saw the revival of the Jammu Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), the oldest party in the disputed region. It won 42 seats while Indian National Congress (INC) bagged 6. The JKNC and INC had already announced their alliance, meaning they will have a simple majority to form the government. There were 90 seats up for grab while 5 members would be nominated by Lieutenant Governor. Since the governor was a handpicked man of the Modi government, he would pick pro-BJP members. But even that would not change the equation as JKNC still has the majority.

It is important to note that the elections were not fought on the issues such as jobs, poverty and health and education facilities. In fact, people voted for JKNC because it promised to restore the special status of the disputed territory and favoured dialogue between India and Pakistan. This means it was a clear defeat of the Modi government's narrative that the Kashmir dispute is settled after the abrogation of Article 370. That both JKNC and INC spoke of India-Pakistan dialogue suggests that both these parties are aware of the sentiments in the valley. However, the election results also indicate that people of Kashmir probably are not happy with Pakistan's current policy. Unlike in the past, the groups and parties that have been seeking right to self-determination in Kashmir did not call for a boycott of the elections. Kashmiris, meanwhile, voted for a party which has been advancing the Indian policy in the region for decades. The crux is that the people of Kashmir rejected the BJP's Kashmir policy but at the same they participated in the hope that a change could only come through political effort, in the absence of a clear policy from Pakistan.

Meanwhile, New Delhi promised restoration of statehood of Kashmir after the elections. Currently, Kashmir is a union territory, meaning it is being directly controlled by the Centre. But the restoration of statehood does not mean going back to the pre-August 2019 situation. Umar Abdullah, the JKNC leader and the likely Chief Minister, concedes that restoration of Article 370 is impossible as long as BJP is in the government. However, he insists that Modi will not remain in the government forever. So, he thinks that once the BJP is out of power, there may be a chance to reverse all those changes. On India-Pakistan talks, Umar Abdullah says that Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who is to visit Islamabad for the SCO meeting, may have said he will not indulge in bilateral talks, but this does reflect a change. He thinks even if there is no bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan during the SCO meeting, Jaishankar's visit is a step in the right direction.

To conclude, what do the election results in Kashmir mean for Pakistan? For example if the Modi government restores the statehood of Kashmir, would it fulfil the precondition Pakistan has set for resumption of talks?