Geopolitical strife can cost global economy $14.5tr

Global economy may lose $14.5 trillion over five years due to geopolitical conflict disrupting supply chains.

LONDON:

The global economy could face losses of $14.5 trillion over a five-year period from a hypothetical geopolitical conflict which hits supply chains, insurance market Lloyd's of London said on Wednesday.

The economic impact would result from severe damage to infrastructure in the conflict region and the potential for compromised shipping lanes, Lloyd's said in a statement.

Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have already disturbed shipping routes in the Black Sea and Red Sea.

"With more than 80% of the world's imports and exports – around 11 billion tons of goods – at sea at any given time, the closure of major trade routes due to a geopolitical conflict is one of the greatest threats to the resources needed for a resilient economy," Lloyd's said.

The possibility of such a geopolitical conflict was a systemic – or low likelihood but high impact – risk, it said.

Lloyd's added that it has also researched other potential systemic risks in partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, including cyberattacks and extreme weather events.