Afghanistan: persistent terrorist threat and global implications

Following the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the geopolitical and security dynamics of the region have experienced a seismic shift. The Taliban's swift takeover of Kabul not only marked the end of a two-decade-long US intervention but also opened the door to new complexities in Afghanistan's internal and external relations, particularly concerning counterterrorism efforts.

Al-Qaeda, ISKP and other extremist groups have played a significant role in shaping Afghanistan's post-occupation landscape. The Taliban's ability - or lack thereof - to counter these factions remains a critical factor in the region's stability and in international counterterrorism strategies.

The Doha Agreement, signed in February 2020 between the US and the Taliban, was intended to pave the way for a peaceful resolution to the Afghan conflict. In return for the withdrawal of US forces, the Taliban promised to cut ties with terrorist groups and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a breeding ground for global terrorism. However, the implementation of these commitments remains questionable, as concerns about the resurgence of extremist networks continue to surface.

Since the US withdrawal, Washington has adopted a cautious stance towards the Taliban-led government. Diplomatic engagements have been minimal, with the US stressing that recognition of the Taliban regime is contingent upon their actions, particularly regarding human rights and counterterrorism efforts.

The Taliban, on their part, have sought to gain international legitimacy while grappling with the internal challenge of maintaining control over various militant factions. Their relationship with al-Qaeda remains a point of contention, as al-Qaeda's survival and limited activity in Afghanistan challenge the Taliban's claims of severing ties with the group.

Al-Qaeda's relationship with the Taliban is a longstanding one, dating back to the 1990s. Despite the US intervention post-9/11, which largely dismantled al-Qaeda's operational capabilities in the region, remnants of the group managed to survive, often under the Taliban's protection.

Al-Qaeda's leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was killed in a US drone strike in Kabul in July 2022, raising significant concerns about the Taliban's harbouring of high-profile terrorists. Zawahiri's presence in the Afghan capital suggested that the Taliban had failed to uphold their commitment to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorist leaders.

Despite this, al-Qaeda's influence in Afghanistan is believed to be diminished. The group has largely focused on consolidating its presence in other regions, such as the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa. Nonetheless, al-Qaeda's continued existence in Afghanistan, even in a limited capacity, presents a significant challenge for the Taliban's aspirations for international recognition.

While al-Qaeda's role in Afghanistan has been reduced, ISKP has emerged as a potent and growing threat. Established in 2015, ISKP has sought to distinguish itself from the Taliban by adopting a more extreme interpretation of Islam and launching brutal attacks on civilians, particularly targeting the Shiite minority in Afghanistan.

ISKP has positioned itself as a rival to both the Taliban and al-Qaeda, accusing the former of being too moderate and lenient towards the West. In recent years, ISKP has carried out high-profile attacks in Kabul and other Afghan cities, undermining the Taliban's ability to maintain security and stability.

The Taliban have vowed to crack down on ISKP's activities, and there have been reports of clashes between Taliban forces and ISKP militants. However, ISKP's decentralised structure and the Taliban's limited governance capabilities have allowed the group to persist. ISKP's resilience poses a dual challenge: it threatens to destabilise Afghanistan internally while also drawing the attention of international counterterrorism efforts.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has left a vacuum in the region's counterterrorism framework. Without a US military presence, Washington has relied on "over-the-horizon" operations to target terrorist groups in Afghanistan. This strategy involves conducting strikes from bases outside Afghanistan, a tactic that has had mixed success due to the logistical and intelligence challenges involved.

The Taliban's role as de facto rulers of Afghanistan complicates US counterterrorism efforts. While the Taliban claim to be committed to preventing terrorist groups from using Afghan soil for attacks against the West, their actions tell a more ambiguous story. The presence of al-Qaeda figures in Afghanistan and the resurgence of ISKP have cast doubt on the Taliban's ability - or willingness - to curb the activities of terrorist groups.

The Taliban's internal dynamics also add a layer of complexity. The group is not monolithic; it consists of various factions with differing views on how to approach governance, foreign relations and extremist groups. Some elements within the Taliban may still sympathise with al-Qaeda, while others may view ISKP as the greater threat. These internal divisions hinder the Taliban's capacity to create a coherent and effective counterterrorism strategy.

The international community remains deeply concerned about the potential for Afghanistan to become a hub for global terrorism. The US and its allies have been wary of engaging too closely with the Taliban regime, given its history of harbouring extremist groups. However, some countries, particularly those in the region such as Pakistan and China, have been more open to engaging with the Taliban in the hope of fostering stability and counterterrorism cooperation.

Pakistan, in particular, has a vested interest in a stable Afghanistan. The rise of ISKP poses a significant threat to Pakistan's security, as the group has targeted Pakistani interests in the past. Islamabad has urged the Taliban to take stronger action against ISKP while also calling for international recognition of the Taliban regime, a move that would likely open the door for greater cooperation on security matters.

China, too, has sought to engage with the Taliban, primarily due to concerns about the spillover of extremism into its Xinjiang province. China has maintained a pragmatic approach, focusing on securing its economic and security interests in Afghanistan, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative.

The post-withdrawal landscape of Afghanistan remains fraught with challenges. The Taliban's ability to govern effectively and curb the activities of terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and ISKP is under intense scrutiny. While the Taliban seek international legitimacy, their failure to distance themselves convincingly from al-Qaeda and their struggle to combat ISKP undermine their claims of being a stabilizing force in the region.

The international community, particularly the US, faces difficult choices in how to engage with the Taliban and address the ongoing threat of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. As the region grapples with these complexities, the future of Afghanistan as a nexus of global terrorism remains uncertain.