Young US entrepreneurs use AI chatbots to predict elections better than human polls

Startup Aaru’s AI polling method predicts elections faster and cheaper, claiming more accurate results than humans.

In a groundbreaking development, two 19-year-old college dropouts, Cam Fink and Ned Koh, have successfully predicted the outcome of a closely watched New York Democratic primary using AI chatbots, without surveying a single human.

Their company, Aaru, claims to have cracked the code on election polling by replacing traditional methods with thousands of AI agents, a technique they say delivers more accurate results.

The poll accurately predicted centrist George Latimer’s victory over incumbent Jamaal Bowman by a near-perfect margin of 58.7% to 41.3%.

Aaru’s approach, which uses census data to simulate voter behaviour, has gained attention from Fortune 500 companies, political campaigns, and think tanks. One campaign in California now relies primarily on Aaru for its polling.

Cam and Ned say their AI agents, which are programmed to replicate voters’ personalities, consume media and adapt their political preferences in real-time. Aaru’s polls, drawing on 5,000 AI respondents, can be conducted within a minute and cost a fraction of traditional human surveys.

Aaru leverages census data to recreate voter districts by designing AI agents that are programmed to think like the real voters they represent.

These agents are assigned hundreds of personality traits, ranging from their goals to their family dynamics. They continuously browse the internet, collecting information to mimic the media consumption habits of the voters they replicate, which can sometimes lead to shifts in their voting preferences.

For example, when Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt, many of Aaru's AI agents quickly changed their voting preferences to support him. However, as more details about the shooter emerged, some agents reverted to their original choices.

Despite some scepticism about the accuracy of large language models, Aaru’s success suggests AI-based polling could become the norm. A think tank, Heartland Forward, recently hired Aaru to conduct a survey on AI perceptions across nine US states, demonstrating corporate interest in the new method.

While AI chatbots are not without flaws, Cam believes their predictive power will soon surpass traditional polling. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” he stated.