Why Thucydides' Trap still haunts us

The concept of an anarchic international system, first articulated by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides in his account of the Peloponnesian War, continues to shape our understanding of global politics today. In his narrative of the 5th century BCE conflict between Athens and Sparta, Thucydides identified a fundamental dynamic: the fear of a rising power (Athens) and the insecurity of an established power (Sparta) led to war. This pattern, later coined as 'Thucydides Trap', remains alarmingly relevant in the context of modern US-China relations.

Thucydides' idea rests on the principle of an anarchic world order, where no overarching authority exists to regulate the relations between sovereign states. In such a system, states are self-help actors which act according to their own interests and needs for survival. This often leads to conflict, as emerging powers challenge the dominance of established ones, resulting in power transitions that frequently end in war. Historically, scholars point out that of the 16 cases where a rising power has threatened a dominant one, 12 have resulted in violent conflict.

Today, the US and China are in the same boat where one is dependent on the other and at the same time, either of them is trying to dominate the other. This has raised concerns in the US where it has been used to being the world's superpower especially in the economic and military might. In economic terms, China's GDP has grown from $1.2 trillion in 2000 to over $18 trillion in 2023, making it the second largest economy in the world. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), stretching across Asia, Africa and Europe, has further bolstered its geopolitical influence.

The Trump administration in 2018 launched a trade war that placed tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese goods and escalated the US military presence in the South China Sea to check China's assertiveness, as per the Thucydides trap. However, the Biden-Harris administration only toned down the language with the same approach. Tariffs have not been removed and the US has deepened its security commitments to the Indo-Pacific region as seen in the AUKUS security agreement signed in 2021. Economically, the Biden administration has persisted in containing China's technological growth, especially through 2022 export bans on semiconductor manufacturing and in 2023 on advanced artificial intelligence chips. Harris has stressed the concept of 'managing rivalry' without confrontation; the administration has been keen on outcompeting China through technology and military might.

Just like the fear and insecurity that characterised the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War leading to military conflict, there are real possibilities of the current tensions between the US and China turning into war, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. The South China Sea which sees an estimated $5.3 trillion worth of cargo pass through annually is an important hotspot. China maintains that it owns almost all of the sea - something declined by international courts - and has been enhancing its presence in the region. The US, in response, has conducted regular Freedom of Navigation Operations, sailing warships through contested waters to assert the right of passage.

Taiwan can also be considered as a cause of the conflict. China regards Taiwan as a rebel province whereas the US, while acknowledging the One-China Policy, has had informal relations with Taiwan and even supplied it with arms. In July 2023, China's military launched its largest ever military exercises around Taiwan which caused concern in Washington. In such a charged environment, any misstep can result in a war that neither party wants but both are planning for.

As Thucydides warned, when a rising power challenges a dominant one, the potential for war increases. The US-China rivalry reflects many of the dynamics seen in previous historical power transitions. While both sides have expressed a desire to avoid war, the actions they are taking —military posturing, economic decoupling and strategic competition - echo the patterns that have historically led to conflict.

In the anarchic international system, where fear and mistrust drive state behavior, the lessons of the Peloponnesian War are as relevant today as they were 2,500 years ago. The challenge for modern leaders is whether they can avoid the Thucydides Trap and manage this power transition peacefully.