Rupee rallies as IMF decision nears

KARACHI:

Pakistani currency and gold staged strong rallies in local markets on Friday. The domestic currency appreciated by Rs0.28, closing at a two-month high of Rs278.16 against the US dollar in the interbank market. This rise came after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that its executive board would consider approving the long-awaited $7 billion loan programme for Pakistan on September 25.

In contrast, gold surged by Rs2,900 per tola (11.66 grams), reaching a record high of Rs265,900 in Pakistan. This jump followed a $51 per ounce (31.10 grams) spike in global markets, with the precious metal hitting a new high of $2,566 per ounce worldwide.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the local currency has strengthened for four consecutive working days, gaining a total of Rs0.54 over this period, returning to mid-July 2024 levels. Previously, the rupee had dropped to a five-month low of Rs278.77 against the dollar last week. In the open market, the currency rose by Rs0.10, reaching Rs280.75 per dollar, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP).

An analyst noted that the potential approval of the IMF's $7 billion Extended Fund Facility is likely to be followed by the release of the first tranche, estimated at $1-1.5 billion. This would boost Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves and unlock further financing from global institutions and friendly nations. This coincided with the Asian Development Bank's announcement of $320 million in new financing for road construction in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, supporting expectations of additional inflows.

The rally in the rupee was also bolstered by a steady rise in SBP-held foreign reserves, which have increased by around $440 million over seven consecutive weeks, reaching a 26-month high of $9.46 billion.

Gold's surge was driven by global trends, as markets anticipate the US Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut on September 18. The European Central Bank's recent rate cut has fuelled expectations that the Fed may follow suit.