Strategising fence-mending in Pakistan-Bangladesh ties

The ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power has brought forth an opportunity for a paradigm shift in the ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh which remained frozen during the 15-year-long rule of the Awami League. High-level contacts between Islamabad and Dhaka for mending fences got a boost when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote a letter to Dr Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Adviser of the caretaker government in Bangladesh, and then telephoned him as well. The two sides examined the need to promote trade, travel and economic ties as well as people-to-people contacts.

According to reports, Prime Minister Shehbaz also called a meeting of former senior diplomats to do some brainstorming on how to go about the situation emerging in Bangladesh in the wake of the August 5, 2024 regime change, particularly in view of the surging anti-India rhetoric there. However, Islamabad's efforts for bettering ties with Bangladesh have failed to elicit reciprocity. Perhaps, the caretaker government of Dr Yunus is more focused on dealing with the internal fault lines related to the economy, governance, protection of religious minorities and demands for Sheikh Hasina's trial for her alleged involvement in the extra-judicial killings and the massacre of students during the anti-government protests.

What is intriguing in the post-Hasina period is the contact between Pakistan and Bangladesh on defence equipment. According to reports, "Just three weeks after Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and a new interim government was installed, Dhaka has ordered for fresh supply of artillery ammunition from Pakistan. The export is to be carried out in three shipments starting 1st week of September and ending in December. This includes more than 40,000 rounds of ammunition, 40 tons of RDX in wax consistency for explosives and projectiles of high intensity, 2900 in number. The previous order in early 2023 was for 12,000 rounds of ammunition."

Such reports must surely be a cause for concern in New Delhi. Conspiracy theorists in India argue that pro-Islamist and pro-Pakistan forces were behind the students' protest and the consequent fall of the Hasina regime. And they see it as a clear message to the world that India's role in Bangladesh is now over.

However, efforts to mend fences with Bangladesh by the successive Pakistani governments, including the one headed by Imran Khan, have failed. Pakistan's former High Commissioner to Dhaka Imran Ahmed Siddiqui went an extra mile by meeting the then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina several times. The then Prime Minister Imran Khan also telephoned Hasina more than once and invited her to visit Pakistan but in vain.

Pakistan's efforts failing to yield results means either the Yunus-led caretaker government does not want to take the risk of positively responding to the overtures from Islamabad because of their possible political implications or it wants some time to come up with a policy framework for fully normalising relations with Islamabad. This means that the bitterness of the past still shapes the mindset in Bangladesh. All the three national days in Bangladesh - February 21, 1952 National Language Day; March 25, 1971 Independence Day; and December 16, 1971 Victory Day - are directed against the past West Pakistani dominated regimes. Textbooks in Bangladesh carry material on alleged atrocities by Pakistan Army during the March-December 1971 military operation and economic exploitation of the people of the then East Pakistan. Needless to say, the very survival of Bangladesh as an independent state is based on the anti-Pakistan narrative.

Strategising fence-mending in the Pakistan-Bangladesh relations and pulling it from the bitterness of the past would require three major initiatives.

First, forging people-to-people contacts, particularly involving the youths of the two Muslim countries, is the need of the hour. While interaction between the youths of Pakistan and Bangladesh on social media is growing, what is needed is promoting educational and cultural ties between the two sides. During the last 15 years of the Sheikh Hasina rule, relations between the two countries reached their lowest ebb. Being the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the founder of Bangladesh, she carried venom and hatred against Pakistan and never bothered to respond to gestures from Islamabad. Now, after the exit of Sheikh Hasina from power, optimists consider it the right time to for fence-mending particularly when the mood of people is largely anti-India and not unfavourable to Pakistan.

Second, what is required of Pakistan and Bangladesh is to come up with a policy strategy on how to proceed in the situation emanating from the August 5 events. It reminds one of the fateful day of August 15, 1975 when Sheikh Mujirbur Rehman, the then President, was gunned down along with his entire family present in his house by the military. Pakistan was the first country to recognise the government of President Khondkhar Mushtaq Ahmed after Mujib's assassination and the then Prime Minister of Pakistan, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto announced sending 100,000 tons of rice and 200,000 metres of cloth to help famine-ridden people of Bangladesh. Likewise, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, while talking to Dr Yunus, offered to help Bangladesh cope with the devastation caused by floods. Yet due to the absence of a strategic policy in shaping new paradigms in the Bangladesh-Pakistan relations, opportunities available after August 5 are being missed. Sadly, unlike in 1975, Pakistan is not in a good shape economically and politically and is not in a position to play a proactive role in the post-August 5 situation in Bangladesh.

Third, there is a gap in strategic thinking in Dhaka and Islamabad for mending fences - something that goes against the legitimate interests of the people of both Pakistan and Bangladesh. It is suggested that if Bangladesh wants to mend fences with Pakistan then it should reciprocate to the overtures from Islamabad and launch the process of dialogue. Easing visa restrictions for Pakistani nationals willing to visit Bangladesh must be on Dhaka's priority list because Islamabad has unilaterally lifted visa restrictions. What is required is pursuance of forward looking approach instead of remaining hostage to the past.