Contaminated neoliberalism

We live in the age of great economic and political churning and tumult. A spectre seems to haunt South Asia - the spectre of instability. Our story starts with one government's spontaneous combustion in Kabul. In the final days of the Ghani government, the question was of money. Actually, that was the question that led to the Trump administration's decision to open dialogue with the Taliban. No one minds a forever war if it serves your interest and somebody else is footing the bill. But nobody likes a permanent liability. Trump openly complained about other regional partners not chipping in. His jibe about the Indian government only paying for libraries and buildings did not go down well in New Delhi. At any rate, he had to pay a heavy price for opening a dialogue with the Taliban. America's media was never an open Trump fan. But the pushback he faced on his planned and aborted Camp David meeting with the Taliban was uncanny. The likes of this pushback would not be seen even when Trump met with Kim Jong Un or Putin. John Bolton resigned because of this planned meeting. Biden, too, paid a price for engaging with the Taliban.

Our story begins with one regime change in Kabul on India's Independence Day in 2021. So far, the story's villain is not India but money or lack thereof. So far. Of course, western media would blame Pakistan for the fall. And that is another weird thing about those times. The eagerness of the Pakistani ruling elite of the time to frame the country for everything going on in the region. When the entire world's media is so keen to blame you for the fall, how can you help? Send your intelligence chief to Kabul and make him speak to the press.

Don't get me wrong. Pakistan, being a post-colonial state with a long history of military and intelligence political involvement, has seen many reproachable developments. Usually, these developments take place behind the thick curtain of plausible deniability. However, this eagerness to visit a murder scene and so carefully and lovingly leave behind your fingerprints all over the place is new to me.

Our story continues. After Afghanistan, we saw several changes in Sri Lanka in a short period. Again, the final change was blamed on money or the lack thereof. But this time there was a discernible historic baggage. Rajapaksa government had committed the irredeemable sin of handing the Hambantota port to China. I visited Colombo a year after a messy election removed him from power. There was no dearth of corruption allegations against the former president. But to say that he had lost public support was a gross exaggeration. We have so much to unpack here and so little space. Let us then stick to basics. My views on the Rajapaksa family's popularity were confirmed in the 2019 elections. But the moment President Gotabaya appointed his brother as the PM we knew Sri Lanka would be punished for its audacity. In 2022 it was. The IMF did not play ball, the economy defaulted, and the government fell.

What happened in Bangladesh is the next milestone. Sheikh Hasina is very sharp. So sharp, in fact, that when she saw Sri Lanka's plight, she not only agreed to import expensive electricity from an Adani-owned powerplant in Jharkhand but reached out to the IMF to ensure that this deal does not become a financial liability for her government. But she was annoying, not just to the foes. While she took full advantage of India's middle-income trap and Bangladesh's apparel industry took off, she did not quit working with China. She was in China when all hell broke loose. You just saw how her government fell, and she spends her time virtually as a prisoner in India now. An interesting point to ponder: while the Adani/IMF deal caused financial hardship for the common man, which might have led to her downfall, the new Bangladeshi government has neither scuttled the agreement nor have we seen any effort to restructure it.

Now, let us talk about our beloved homeland. Recently, a rumour gripped the federal capital that a Bangladesh-like situation was in the offing. This assumption is easy to reach. There are thousands currently protesting in Islamabad. With so many on the ground, you only need a contingent factor, a spark to light the fuse. And that is apart from the bullets (like religious parties rallying against a minority community) we have already dodged. The economic downturn and the rightsizing efforts caused the ongoing protests. I believe that if there is a bullet out there with your name on it, it gets you sooner or later unless you get to it first and know what to do.

If you unpack all these stories, you might realise a few names surface ad nauseam. Here they are in order: Adani, IMF, India, Pakistan, China, and the US. The main grievance usually stems from the Adani group or India. Fraternising with China or Pakistan is the allegation. The US is generally blamed or framed for the change. Your inimitable fall guy or patsy. And the IMF is usually presented as the cup of hemlock.

Whether you take the Fund's prescription or not, you die in the end. The Fund knows the best. It knows your system inside out. Even if it asks you to make tough decisions, it shows great regard for the elite capture and asks you to cut spending where it hurts the poor. Look no further than the shuttering of utility stores and PWD. None of this could happen without the Fund's approval or active encouragement.

And yet the Fund that habitually sees great catastrophes beyond the encouraging reports in the US seems to trust India's highly contentious numbers implicitly. Gita Gopinath was in India recently, where she publicly reposed trust in the Indian system. This, even as great drama unfolds at the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), and we get a whiff of the pile of refuse that India's corrupt patronage system has become under Adani and Modi's supervision. Interestingly, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s head chose that moment to speak to the media. Surprise, surprise, he decided to give an exclusive interview only to Adani's news channel.

I hear some people are getting restless in the Islamic Republic. That would be because the state wants to get to the bottom of whatever transpired between 2017 and 2022. I just want a quieter world which lets me live happily and progress. But I know when the going gets tough, these tough men take it out on me. Relax. I just report not cause any events. You do not need to worry if you are not an economic or political hitman. And you do not need to take it out on me. I come in peace, and I shall go in peace.