Chappell Roan's The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess likely to win Album of the Year Grammy

Released in September 2023, the album reached number-two on the Billboard 200 11 months later.

Chappell Roan's rise to fame has been steady, with her debut album "The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess" gradually climbing the Billboard 200.

Similarly, her odds for Album of the Year have improved significantly on Gold Derby’s racetrack chart, where she's now considered a strong contender for a nomination. As of August 26, "Midwest Princess" holds the number-four spot on the chart with 21/2 odds, a jump from ninth place on August 19 and 11th place on August 12. Currently, 17 of Gold Derby’s Top 24 Users predict her nomination, with two picking her as the winner. Among the All-Star Top 24, 16 anticipate a nomination, with one backing her to win.

However, Roan's success might still be underestimated. Unlike albums that debut with high sales and quickly decline, "Midwest Princess," released in September 2023, reached number-two on the Billboard 200 in August 2024, 11 months later. Her single "Good Luck, Babe!" also saw a slow-burning success, peaking at number-six long after its release. This kind of organic growth might appeal more to voters compared to the more predictable success of Taylor Swift's "The Tortured Poets Department," Beyonce's "Cowboy Carter," and Billie Eilish's "Hit Me Hard and Soft." With Swift and Eilish already having won Album of the Year, there may be less urgency to award them again.

"Midwest Princess" continues to gain momentum, with several tracks like "My Kink Is Karma," "Femininomenon," "Casual," "Pink Pony Club," "Red Wine Supernova," and "Hot to Go!" joining "Good Luck, Babe!" on the Hot 100. This consistency positions Roan as a well-rounded artist with staying power, which voters often prefer over newcomers with only a few hits. Roan seems poised to maintain her upward trajectory.