US elections: what to expect?

The lineup for the upcoming US Presidential elections is now finalised with Kamala Harris formally accepting the nomination for the Democratic Party. Few weeks ago, the current vice President would not have thought she would be contesting the November 5 elections against former US President Donald Trump. The disastrous early debate with Trump dealt a fatal blow to incumbent President Joe Biden's bid for re-election at the age of 83. There were already question marks about the physical and mental health of Biden. When he finally withdrew from the race, Kamala was the automatic choice. Before Kamala's nomination, Trump was ahead in polls but since the withdrawal of Biden from the race, the gap is now closing. At the Democratic National Convention, Kamala made history by formally accepting the Democratic nomination for president. Her speech was a call to action, urging Americans to unite in defence of democracy and against the threats of authoritarianism. She emphasised key issues like gun control, climate change and social justice, and underscored her commitment to protecting the rights of marginalised communities.

Kamala also drew on her personal story as the daughter of immigrants, highlighting the significance of her candidacy as the first Black and South Asian woman to lead a major party's ticket. She framed the election as a battle for the soul of the nation, stressing that the stakes have never been higher.

The Trump camp reacted strongly to Kamala's nomination, dismissing her speech as "out of touch" with the concerns of ordinary Americans. They labeled her policy proposals as extreme and warned that her leadership would push the country toward socialism, contrasting their own platform as one of "freedom and prosperity".

This election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious in recent memory, with both sides mobilising their bases and framing the race as a choice between starkly different visions for America's future. Kamala's historic candidacy and the sharp reactions from her opponents underscore the high stakes and deep divisions that define the 2024 campaign.

Major issues include the economy, healthcare, climate change, immigration and protection of democracy. Both parties have sharply different approaches to these issues. Turnout is expected to be high, similar to the record levels seen in 2020, as both sides view this election as crucial for the country's future. Key battleground states, also known as swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, will likely decide the election outcome.

The 2024 election will determine not only the presidency but also control of Congress, with all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate up for grabs.

This election is expected to be one of the most closely watched and contentious in US history, reflecting deep divisions in the country.

The outcome of the elections will also have a huge impact on international politics. The return of Trump would mean unpredictable US policies as the Republican nominee has shown during his first term at the White House, as he took decisions that were not consistent with the policies of the US establishment. That is why Kamala has raised concerns that Trump's return to the White House would be disastrous not only for the US but for the whole world.

For Pakistan, the results of the elections also matter - as for the rest of the world. Unlike the 2015 pre-poll fears, the relationship between Pakistan and the US took a positive turn under Trump, though his administration cut off all security and civilian assistance. But the unconventional style of Trump allowed Pakistan to have direct access to the White House. That was the reason that in July 2019 Prime Minister Imran Khan undertook a visit to the White House. Democrats on the other hand have followed a more traditional approach. President Biden has never spoken to any of Pakistani PMs since he became the President, something that was seen as unusual. But no matter who will be in charge of the White House, Pakistan would not be a priority.