Fall of the wall: unraveling of Indian narrative in Bangladesh

The fall of Sheikh Hasina's government on August 5, 2024, ending her 15-year reign, not only marks a significant transformation for Bangladesh but also signals the crumbling of a narrative heavily influenced by India, which sought to alienate Bangladesh from Pakistan.

Hasina's sudden departure to India amid chaos underscored the culmination of a tenure that started with promise but gradually descended into authoritarianism. Serving three consecutive terms since 2009, after a previous stint from 1996 to 2001, the 76-year-old leader was compelled to abandon her position as public outrage over a violent crackdown on students' protests reached a fever pitch. These protests, resulting in over 400 deaths in just three weeks, galvanised tens of thousands of demonstrators who marched towards her residence in Dhaka.

Throughout her tenure, the Hasina administration systematically suppressed dissent, imprisoned opposition leaders and curtailed fundamental freedoms. In the name of maintaining stability and fostering economic progress, it orchestrated a severe crackdown on political adversaries, journalists and rights activists. Notably, opposition figures were imprisoned on charges widely considered to be politically motivated.

Despite frequent criticism from human rights groups, the Indian government remained conspicuously silent, prioritising strategic alliances over democratic principles. India facilitated a narrative that painted Bangladesh as a thriving nation under a strong leader, a depiction actively propagated to foster a divide between Bangladesh and Pakistan.

This narrative has deep historical roots in the tensions between India and Pakistan, which have often influenced Bangladesh's political landscape. Through diplomatic and media channels, India sought to position Bangladesh as a model of secularism and development, starkly contrasting it with Pakistan. This portrayal served India's regional strategic interests and justified its support for Hasina's increasingly authoritarian regime.

Under Hasina's rule, the Awami League implemented policies perceived as favouring India, including recognising August 15, India's Independence Day, as a public holiday in Bangladesh - a move that many viewed as undermining Bangladesh's own historical narrative and sovereignty. Such decisions contributed to AL's growing unpopularity.

India has long maintained that if the BNP won an open election, it could destabilise the region. This perspective was based on the belief that the BNP has historically been more accommodating to Islamist groups which, India fears, could exploit Bangladesh as a base for extremism. For many decades, India has strategically used the narrative of Islamist terrorism to maintain a divided South Asia. By framing Islamist terrorism as a pervasive threat, India justifies its internal security policies and consolidates its role as the regional stabiliser, discouraging smaller neighbours from engaging with perceived rivals like Pakistan or China. However, this approach has contributed to a climate of mistrust among South Asian countries.

Furthermore, the unraveling of this narrative exposes the limitations of Indian democracy itself. While India has often positioned itself as the world's largest democracy, its foreign policy in South Asia has been marked by a selective endorsement of democratic values. The support for authoritarian regimes like Hasina's, which align with its geopolitical interests, raises questions about the integrity of India's democratic ethos. This approach has not only alienated its neighbours but also undermined its moral authority on the global stage.

In short, India's threat narrative of Islamist terrorism was aimed at consolidating its influence and keeping South Asia fragmented, with Bangladesh as a key piece in its geopolitical chess game. However, Hasina's abrupt departure not only exposes the limitations of this narrative but also signals a significant setback for India's regional dominance. As the walls of this narrative fall, India is forced to confront the consequences of its approach, while Bangladesh faces a crucial moment to redefine its political landscape. This shift reflects a broader realignment in South Asia, underscoring the need for a more balanced and cooperative regional strategy.