Covid-19 effects to cause 'excess' deaths in Australia for years

Australia is expected to experience the long-term impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, with elevated mortality rates persisting for years.

According to a report by the Actuaries Institute released on Monday, 8,400 more people died in 2023 than would have been expected under pre-pandemic conditions, a decrease from the 20,000 'excess' deaths recorded in 2022.

The report highlighted that 4,600 of the additional deaths in 2023 were directly due to Covid-19, while another 1,500 were linked to the virus. The substantial drop in excess deaths from 2022 to 2023 did not bring the mortality rate below levels seen in severe flu seasons prior to the pandemic.

"We believe Covid-19 will likely cause excess mortality for several years, either directly or as a contributing factor to other causes like heart disease," said actuary Karen Cutter from the institute's mortality working group.

"The 'new normal' mortality level is expected to be higher than it would have been without the pandemic."

Australian National University epidemiology lecturer Rezanur Rahaman noted that the higher death rate could persist due to factors such as vaccination rates and the efficacy of the jabs.

"Excess deaths will continue for some time as Covid-19 is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen that will not die out soon," he told AAP.

Professor Andrew Hayen, a bio-statistics expert at the University of Technology Sydney, pointed out that the age-standardised death rate in 2023 was nearly the same as in 2019.

"We have seen a considerable decline in excess deaths as measured by the Actuaries Institute, and this trend is likely to continue," he said.

However, he also noted the difficulty in attributing deaths specifically to post-Covid effects, rather than to reduced healthcare during the pandemic.

"Many deaths in 2022 were probably due to mortality displacement, and there may also be issues related to pressures on emergency services and delays in standard care," Hayen added. "It's not possible to determine exactly what proportion is attributable to specific causes."

The actuaries' report, which compared Australia's experience with 40 other countries, found that the local excess death rate of five per cent between 2020 and 2023 was low by global standards, which averaged 11 per cent.