A Trumpian end to Biden’s America?

America dodged a bullet last Saturday. Trump is not America. But had his would-be assassin succeeded, America would have been coming apart at the seams by this time. It is not essential that things would have taken a more violent turn. But there always are many ways for a cookie to crumble.

A documentary titled America’s Burning featuring Michael Douglas predicts that America’s next civil war will be about economics instead of being a violent one. In Kiefer Sutherland’s Designated Survivor, following a terror attack, many states refuse to accept the federal government’s authority. Centrifugal forces in America thrive on such crises.

Three weeks ago, I wrote the following lines in this space: “So, the safest bet is that as long as Biden is breathing, he can beat Trump. But this is not acceptable to the agents of chaos. If their purpose were to bring Trump back into power, one could make peace with that. But remember, for how long did Nikki Haley refuse to quit the race in the vain hope that Trump might get disqualified by the courts? It looks like the far-right elements among America’s allies consider it a moral inconvenience and want it consumed by inner divisions, even at the cost of risking another civil war. That is why an irreconcilable conflict is being manufactured out of which no one emerges unharmed.”

Incidentally, had Trump been eliminated without naming his running mate, could you guess the name of the most likely nominee? The runner-up in the primaries Governor Nikki Haley. There seems to have been a hectic effort to promote her as the most suitable Republican candidate for the presidency or the veep position. I do not get this obsession or the merits of the arguments advanced in her favour. She was an appalling UN ambassador. Undiplomatic to her core. Arguably even worse than John Bolton. But that is not all. It would help if you remembered that America still pays the price for choosing a president of colour for two terms. These aspirational things sound great to starry-eyed dreamers, but in countries not ready for such a significant change, they inevitably result in bedlam.

In 2008 and 2012, America turned down two brilliant Republicans in pursuit of a post-racial dream. Sadly, however, it did not pan out how it was supposed to. The post-9/11 trauma led America to an invasion spree. Since only two countries before 9/11 (India and Israel) were openly conflating Islam with terrorism and Huntington’s clash hypothesis had already coloured the American intel community’s view of the world, it accorded these two nations unparalleled access and influence in the war on terror. The Iraq war brought a lot of shame and the sentiment that ultimately brought Obama into power. But just a quick reminder. Saddam never directly attacked America. Even in the first Gulf War, Israel was its main target. So, my hypotheses of Israel and eventually India hijacking America’s war on terror and making Islam and terrorism synonymous hold.

After Bush’s two roller-coaster terms, McCain would have been ideally placed to bring an amicable end to this war and perhaps even convince these two allies not to manipulate the American system. That is despite the moral handicap of having Sarah Palin as your running mate. However, human nature seeks easy solutions. Optics rather than substance. It opted for a black candidate with “Hussein” as his middle name.

But right from the get-go, Bush’s successor got ambushed. Bob Woodward’s Obama’s Wars notes the dramatic transformation that overcame Obama after the first intelligence briefing. In those days, the anti-Muslim, anti-minority and anti-liberal vitriol was such that he had to spend his two terms in office proving his toughness on national security issues. But it was oh so pointless. He struggled to end the Iraq war and failed to close down the Gitmo operation or control the Afghan mess. India and Israel used this environment to their advantage. An emboldened Netanyahu even publicly snubbed Obama on the Iran nuclear deal in his own country. If you are thinking, at least somebody got something out of this, pray, look again. Do Israel under Netanyahu and India under Modi look like happy places to you? This is the problem with hardliners everywhere. In their admirable haste to maximise their leverage, they damage their community’s interest.

One instructive example is of Rishi Sunak in the UK. When he declared his candidature with Sajid Javid in tow, I aired my concerns about South Asians accepting such high-stakes jobs. Mercifully, Sajid Javid backed out, but Sunak did not. Some friends accused me of having an anti-India bias. Tell me, how does it feel to let such a talented and intelligent young man become the face of the fourteen years of Tory misgovernance or the worst electoral defeat in the party’s history? Is it a price worth paying for less than two years in power?

Nikki Haley is the media’s darling, American deep state and Israel and India’s favourite today because she has been unequivocal in her Islamophobia. In a 2017 remark to AIPAC regarding Palestinians, she said she wore high heels to “kick ‘em”. This year, she went on record to say all Gazans (women, children, and other non-combatants included) be evicted and sent to pro-Hamas countries. If this is your taste in politicians, folks, think how low you have sunk.

The American media is deranged today because the American establishment is so unhinged it cannot tell the difference between its national interest and the machinations of its hard-right allies. That is a sad commentary on the world’s sole superpower.

Obama left behind a badly divided country. I like the man, but I am tired of making excuses for him. During his tenure, racism grew, misogyny grew, and so did the anti-immigrant sentiment. He even mainstreamed Modi. If it is true and he or his surrogates are playing any part in removing Biden from the 2024 ticket, they are guaranteeing a Trump victory. Biden is a stronger candidate than Obama himself because, despite being white, he has been able to deliver more results than his predecessors for vulnerable communities. Perhaps some in his orbit think a Trump victory is affordable because it may reset the Democratic ticket in 2028. Sadly, this is not how history works. If Biden is forced to quit I think I would start rooting for the other camp. At least they know how to get results and why not to weaken their own candidate. If this is how you treat your most reliable horse, what hope is there for the likes of us? At least Trump knows how to reward loyalty.