A ticking time bomb

The release of Pakistan’s 7^th Population Census reveals some stark realities that demand urgent attention. With a population growth rate now the 27^th fastest globally, the country’s total population has surged to 241.49 million, growing at a rate of 2.55%. Federal Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal has warned that if this trend continues, Pakistan’s population could balloon to 480 million by 2047.

One of the most alarming statistics from the census is that 79% of the population is under 40. This demographic should be an asset, but without sufficient jobs, political stability and economic opportunities, it becomes a looming crisis. High unemployment and a lack of educational opportunities are pushing this youthful population towards frustration and emigration, contributing to a severe brain drain. Besides, the literacy rate remains dismally low, with 39.5% of people above 10 being illiterate and 36% of children out of school. In a country where 60.5% of the population aged 10 and older is literate, and female labour force participation is only 23%, the dream of economic growth seems distant. Iqbal correctly points out that without improving these figures, economic progress is unachievable.

The growing population exerts immense pressure on already scarce resources, adversely affecting per capita income and living conditions. Pakistan’s socio-economic planning has suffered due to the dominance of fiscal policies over comprehensive planning, leading to socioeconomic distortions. Moreover, discrepancies in population figures, such as those reported for Karachi, highlight the need for accurate data to inform policy decisions. For Pakistan to harness the potential of its young population, immediate steps must be taken to improve education, create job opportunities, and stabilise the economy. Only then can the country turn its demographic challenge into an economic opportunity.