Rwanda's global impact: A small nation's growing influence

KIGALI:

A small landlocked African nation playing in the big league: with military might, image branding and political influence, Rwanda under President Paul Kagame has become a major strategic player with tentacles spread far and wide.

De facto leader since the 1994 genocide and running for a fourth term as president in elections Monday, the iron-fisted Kagame has established a sphere of influence far outweighing Rwanda's size to develop the country and entrench his own power base.

Unlike many other African nations, "Rwanda is pursuing a real foreign policy strategy", says Paul-Simon Handy, East Africa director at the Institute for Security Studies.

This strategy is similar to "smart power", says Handy, combining hard power -- the use of military and economic means for influence -- and soft power.

The Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) is one of the pillars of this policy, though its role is contradictory.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has for years accused its neighbour of fomenting instability in the east and supporting armed groups, including the Tutsi-led M23, deploying troops and allegedly seeking to plunder its mineral wealth.

A recent UN experts report said 3,000-4,000 Rwandan soldiers are fighting alongside M23 rebels and that Kigali had "de facto control" of the group's operations.

Questioned repeatedly on the issue, Kagame has not explicitly denied the presence of Rwandan forces in DRC, instead pointing to the "persecution" of the Tutsi minority and the risk of instability on Rwanda's border.

"By nature, Rwanda's security posture has always been defensive, not offensive. We only act when trouble is brought on us," he said this month.

Its murky role in the DRC has however cost Kigali some financial support from the West, which since 2012-2013 has cut development aid and investment.

At the same time, Kagame has established his army as the "policeman of Africa".

Since 2024, the RDF has taken part in numerous UN peacekeeping missions. With 5,894 men deployed as of March 31, Rwanda is the fourth largest contributor, with forces in South Sudan and the Central African Republic.

"By participating in and leading peacekeeping and unilateral military missions, Rwanda has significantly enhanced its global image and strategic relevance beyond its historical association with the 1994 genocide," said Federico Donelli, assistant professor of international relations at the University of Trieste.

It also reaps a financial windfall. The UN pays contributors $1,428 per soldier per month, meaning Kigali receives more than $100 million a year.

The RDF has also been deployed under bilateral deals with, for example, CAR and Mozambique.

Read: Kagame set for fourth term victory in Rwanda election

These military commitments are often accompanied by economic agreements, offering development opportunities for Rwanda, which does not have its own natural resources or industrial base, and is reliant on international funding.

In CAR, Rwandans enjoy privileged investment access to sectors such as mining, agriculture and construction, often led by Crystal Ventures, an investment firm owned by Kagame's ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF).

These deals also represent a valuable diplomatic lever to ward off sanction threats over the DRC or its dismal human rights record.

"Rwanda has never hidden its threat to withdraw from peacekeeping operations if it were to be sanctioned," said Handy.

"It has proven its effectiveness: DRC efforts to have Rwanda sanctioned for its support for the M23 were unsuccessful."

Donelli said Kagame has an ability to read global dynamics.

"He knows that Western actors are increasingly reluctant to get involved in African crises," he added.

"In an increasingly chaotic regional context, he is using Rwanda's role as a reliable partner in crises to reduce Western criticism and divert attention from domestic issues such as the lack of democratic development, centralisation of power and human rights concerns."

Kagame is accused of authoritarian rule, muzzling the media and political opposition, while according to the World Bank almost half the population lives on less than $2.15 a day.

But he has sought to burnish Rwanda's image abroad -- selling itself as an African flagship for new technology, a hub for conferences and major sporting events, and a leading ecotourism destination.

Sponsorship deals have seen "Visit Rwanda" emblazoned on the shirts of European football teams Arsenal, PSG and Bayern Munich.

Rwanda has also boosted its presence in global organisations.

In 2009, it became a member of the Commonwealth and hosted its 2022 summit, while a former minister is head the International Organisation of La Francophonie (French-speaking union), another serves as deputy chair of the African Union Commission.

Handy says Rwanda's "smart power" was illustrated by the controversial deal to take in asylum seekers deported from Britain.

"The interest was essentially financial but it was also the projection of an image of a peaceful country where it would be good for refugees to live."

Widely condemned by rights groups and blocked by UK courts, the scheme has now been scrapped by Britain's new government -- but Rwanda insists it is not obliged to return the 240 million pound ($311 million) payment already sent by London.