A hot Earth is with us

Not a day passes without the newspapers reporting some unexpected and unusual weather event. These are all related to global warming. Earth is expected to surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark set in the 2025 Climate Summit in Paris as the point when the globe would enter a period of catastrophic change. Global temperature records have been significantly broken since June 2023 as a burgeoning El Nino phenomenon began releasing vast stores of heat which were accompanied by heavy rains. This is a repeat of a situation that occurred in the early 1990 when I was working as World Bank Vice President in charge of Latin America. Alberto Fujimori, then the President of Peru, invited me to his country and travel with him in his official aircraft to see for myself the damage that was being done in several parts of the country.

Desperate Fujimori wanted to move tens of thousands of llamas, a ship-like animal, from the low-lying areas to higher ground. Llamas are unique to Peru and are valued from their fur. Llama coats are also valued by women in the United States. Experts warned that such a move would kill more animals than they would drown in the expected floods. They asked me to convince the president to leave the animals where they were. I managed to convince the president after promising hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of assistance to the country to deal with the damage done by the floods.

It was an El Nino type of weather pattern that resulted in the 1971 cyclone in what was then East Pakistan, the eastern part of Pakistan born in 1947. What was perceived by the affected citizens as poor response by the distant federal government that led to agitation by the citizens which ultimately led to the split of Pakistan and birth of Bangladesh. This event is a proof of the fact that unaddressed weather-related events can have serious political consequences.

This and other situations demand urgent action. This unprecedented period of warmth has astonished scientists who have been working in this field of research and have now begun to appeal the leaders of the United Nations. The institution’s Secretary General has responded. “For the past year, every turn of the calendar has tuned up the heat,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a special address in New York. “Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening.” We seem not to be listening to scientists, either. A study published by a group of 57 scientists on June 5, 2024 found that human activities were responsible for 92 per cent of the warming observed in 2023, the planet’s hottest calendar year on record. It said that the rate of warming in the past decade is “unprecedented in the instrumental record”. Scientists now estimate an 86 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass the record average observed in 2023.

This is a periodic report; the latest issue quoted above shows that it has become nearly a certainty that global temperatures will continue to cross into dangerous zones. At a sustained average of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which now convenes every year in different parts of the world has repeatedly warned that weather will become so extreme that many people will struggle to deal with it. To go back to the statement by the United Nations Secretary General: “The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees could be a difference between extinction and survival for some small states and coastal communities.”

The latest is the news from Mecca where some two million Muslims were performing the Haj. On June 15, fourteen Jordanian pilgrims died as result of exposure to extreme sun and heat. Temperatures reached 110 degrees Fahrenheit. An additional 17 pilgrims were missing. The Saudi Press Agency reported that the country’s medical centre had treated 225 pilgrims for heat exhaustion and stress. The rituals pilgrims perform include praying outside the Great Mosque of Mecca and spending the day in prayer at Mount Arafat, under the blazing sun. Based on the lunar calendar, this time the Haj moved into the middle of June. Next year it will be in early June. Unless some actions are taken by the authorities such as cooling the tents under which pilgrims gather, heatwave deaths would continue to take a heavy toll.

By now it is well-known that the continent of South Asia is experiencing its worst summer ever. This is the case in particular with the northern areas of India and southern parts of Pakistan. The cities in these areas have experienced record temperatures, killing people of heat exhaustion. Those who have access to air conditioning are able to deal with the situation. Those who work outside, as is the case with hundreds of millions of farmers, there is no escape from the relentless heat. The health systems in these countries are unable to deal with the developing situation.

There were reports from southern parts of Europe of extreme heat taking a large human toll. Heatwaves that swept across Greece in June exacted a deadly toll on the weekend of June 15-16 with the authorities reporting the deaths of several tourists who had decided to do activities out in the Sun. As the latest hot spell in the country peaked on June 12-13, the authorities closed many schools in Athens and visiting hours were restricted at several ancient sites, including the Acropolis, Greece’s most popular tourist attraction.

Some but not all world leaders who are aware of the situation have thrown up their hands. For instance, French President Emmanuel Macron asked 150 ordinary citizens to help with policymaking. He banned advertisements for coal, petroleum and hydrogen made from fossil fuels. “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” the UN Secretary General said in the above quoted statement. “We need an exit ramp of the highway climate hell.”

Some but not enough work has been done by experts on the impact of people’s movement of climate change. Not able to live where they now reside, they will move to safer places not only within countries but also across international frontiers. Both Western Europe and the United States should ready themselves for climate refugees.