Opinion

Israel’s war of vengeance — apartheid to ethnic cleansing

Inam Ul Haque June 06, 2024

The writer is a retired major general and has an interest in International Relations and Political Sociology. He can be reached at tayyarinam@hotmail.com and tweets @20_Inam

On 29 September 2023, Jake Sullivan, the US NSA, optimistically declared: “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” And within a week, Hamas attacked Israel, breaking this calm.

Without achieving its stated war aims, despite overwhelming military superiority, Israel and IDF appear to be losing the war in Gaza. A resurgent Hezbollah is shelling its northern borders and sending drones; Houthis are blocking sea access; Iran is willing and capable of tit-for-tat escalation; the US-Israel ‘special’ relationship is strained; the ICJ has ruled against Tel Aviv; Israel is diplomatically and politically isolated worldwide, especially at the UN; and a hostile international street is forcing Israel into a ‘pariah state’. Abraham Accords are frozen before a hostile Arab sentiment, and normalisation of ties with Riyadh, are a pipedream for now.

Professor John Mearsheimer, the author of the classic, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001), and former political science professor at University of Chicago, sees this as a three-way conflict. Between Israel and Hamas/Palestinians, between Israel and Hezbollah, and between Israel-Iran and the US. The defining milestones are April 1, 2024 (Israeli attack on Iranian Embassy building in Damascus), April 14th (Iran’s drone-missile retaliation) and April 19th (the Israeli counterstrike).

The ‘Greater’ Israel and its around 7 million Jews today control 7.3 million Palestinians. Having converted Gaza and West Bank into the World’s largest open prisons, the Professor claims that Israel, under its lop-sided demographic compulsion, has four options – a) a democratic Greater Israel…not feasible, as Israel is an avowed Jewish ideological state, in fear of Palestinian demography, b) a two-state solution…not acceptable to Israeli Right, Netanyahu and Israeli elite, c) apartheid state…that is what contemporary Israel has become, and d) ethnic cleansing of most if not all Palestinians, to retain Jewish dominance.

Despite ‘settler-activism’ in West Bank, Israel was managing the overall security situation well till October 7, hence Sullivan’s optimism. Hamas’ no inclination for a ‘two-state’ solution, as opposed to West Bank’s Palestinian Authority, endeared Hamas to Israel. Israel happily funded Hamas and sent IDF every now and then to “mow the lawn,” through limited punitive incursions in the occupied territories.

The 7th of October surprised both Israel and Hamas – Hamas for the scale of its success. To enhance its perimeter of security, to get out of the existing apartheid status, and to defeat/eliminate Hamas, Israel now would ethnically cleanse Gaza. And so, the IDF’s murderous attack on Rafah against all pleadings, rulings and advice. Israel would be repeating the massive ethnic cleansing drives of 1948 and 1967.

Israeli media is never shy of Palestinians’ ethnic cleansing. And that is one reason why there is no post-conflict political plan for Gaza, amidst continued killing of innocent civilians, and the ensuing starvation to make Gaza unlivable. Israel feels no need for final political settlement in the bombed wasteland of Gaza. Will Israel be able to persist with this genocidal ethnic cleansing? If today is any guide, it might, if the military situation with Egypt especially does not change.

Hezbollah shelling in support of Hamas has driven around 60,000 and 100,000 Israelis from the northern Israel down south. Hezbollah’s growing arsenal of around 50,000 rockets, drones and missiles will keep IDF indecisively embroiled. And Houthis recently landed their first missile inside Israel. Iran after using proxies for sometime attacked Israel proper. But Tehran has no interest in escalation, neither the US nor the West Plus. Tehran, reportedly, kept its April 14 retaliation limited after coordinating with Washington, allowing it to be intercepted by Jordanians, Saudis, the French, the British and Americans, all augmenting Israel’s Iron Dome air defence.

However, the Iran attack did reveal gaps in Israeli geo-strategy (escalation-ladder dominance), and its operational strategy of defending itself by itself, as roughly half of Iranian air armada was taken off by West Plus. Likewise, Israel was coaxed to keep its counterstrike limited, as it targeted just one S-300 missile system’s radar in Isfahan.

Israel faces political, geo-strategic and operational impossibility. First, given the relative military incapability of its nemesis, Israel will continue to push into Rafah, continuing with the war of attrition. Second, having entered Gaza against its stated policy since 2005, Israel finds no way out except Gaza’s utter devastation and Palestinians’ ethnic cleansing. But that has steep and recurring costs for Tel Aviv, the World Jewry and the US. Paradoxically, if Israeli leaders do not persist with the present operational strategy, they risk failing in their war aims (Hamas destruction, hostage release and security around Israel proper). So, either way Israel is in trouble.

Third, ‘escalation-dominance’ and ‘mowing the lawn’…as central planks of Israeli military strategy have failed Israeli deterrence, vis-à-vis Hamas and Iran. Israel also remains unable to defend itself without Western, especially the American help. Therefore, IDF needs to find another strategic construct in the changed environment.

Fourth, with changing military situation making technologies like drones inexpensively available and proliferation of missiles, non-state actors like Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah and Iran proper can swarm the skies and saturate AD response. This makes many Israelis nervous for being exposed to formidable adversaries, hence the specter of many Jews emigrating out of their troubled promised land.

Fifth, Israeli political, diplomatic, socio-psychological and likely economic isolation is a given, and a big loss to Israel and the World Jewry. Even the mood within the US is changing. About 56% Americans think that Israel is committing genocide; 57% Biden voters think alike with 27% not sure, and a mere 15% believing Israel is not committing genocide. Israel and Jews’ reputation has taken a hit, rearing antisemitism.

Sixth, the US has its plate full…with war in Ukraine stalemated to Russia’s advantage; another Cold War with China and strategic competition with Russo-Sino-Iranian behemoth in the offing; conflict in the Middle East complicating the US pivot to Asia; American public in no mood for another conflict spilling into Iran; and the US geostrategic ‘compulsion’ to keep ME friendly, preventing China and Russia to fill the vacuum.

Iran is reportedly six months away from developing nuclear weapons, enabled by the US withdrawal from the JCPOA – the Obama-era nuclear agreement. From the present 60% uranium enrichment to weapons grade (+/-90%), it is notches away. And that will be a game changer, setting sun on Israeli military dominance.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 6^th, 2024.

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COMMENTS (1)

Saleem Akhtar Malik | 5 months ago | Reply Zionist Colonization of Palestine In his Op-Ed dated 6 June 2024 Major General Inam Ul Haque continues to debate the Israel- Hamas War and its regional and global implications. He repeats his fear that without achieving its stated war aims despite overwhelming military superiority Israel and IDF appear to be losing the war in Gaza . Referring to Professor John Mearsheimer s assessment of the options available to Israel the general agrees that the far-right Israeli leadership under Netanyahu having arrogantly exhausted the possibilities of a democratic Greater Israel or a two-state solution is left with becoming an apartheid state that can only survive through ethnic cleansing. Despite settler-activism in the West Bank observes General Inam Israel was managing the overall security situation well till October 7 hence Sullivan s optimism 0n 29 September 2023 . Zionism is not a monolithic ideology based on a single strand. It has many shades from socialist-leaning Settler Zionism espoused by Chaim Weizmann and David Ben Gurion to the Revisionist Zionism professed by Ze ev Jabotinsky and Menahem Begin. A land without a people for a people without a land is one of the most oft-cited phrases in the literature of Zionism. This phrase is common among all the Zionists irrespective of their ideological leanings and perhaps also the most problematic for them. Early Zionists believed Palestine was uninhabited. In the same breath they denied and continue to reject the existence of a distinct Palestinian identity. Ze ev Jabotinsky 1880-1940 in his 1923 essay The Iron Wall. saw Israel as a single state for Jews from the river to the sea. If there were to be any Arabs within the state they would be a distinct minority. Thus Israel would acknowledge the rights self-determination and identity of one people only the Jews. In 1925 Jabotinsky formed the Revisionist Zionist Alliance in the World Zionist Congress to advocate his views which included increased cooperation with Britain on transforming the entire Mandate for Palestine territory including Palestine itself and Transjordan on opposite sides of the Jordan River into a sovereign Jewish state loyal to the British Empire. To this end Jabotinsky advocated for mass Jewish immigration from Europe and the creation of a second Jewish Legion to guard a nascent Jewish state at inception. Jabotinsky wished to convince Britain that a Jewish state would be in the best interest of the British Empire perhaps even an autonomous extension of it in the Middle East. The Zionist thinkers acknowledged in their various statements that the State of Israel would be an injustice to the Palestinians albeit a small injustice as compared with what happened to the Jews in the past. General Inam identifies three Israeli compulsions thrust upon IDF in the wake of the Israel-Hamas War 1 Remain embroiled with Hamas in the Gaza Strip 2 Ethnic cleansing of Palestinians 3 Craft alternate strategies due to IDF s gradual inability to dominate the escalation ladder. Israel s possession of state-of-the-art weapon systems like the F-35 stealth fighter electromagnetic pulse weapons domination of cyberspace and Merkava tank does not help it much to remain in control of the escalation ladder. These weapon systems including the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers available to Israel whenever it wants are based on cutting-edge technologies but were designed to fight wars in another era. It is the third-rate terror organizations like Hamas Hezbollah and the Iran-backed Houthi Rebels in Yemen who have proven the asymmetrical advantages that anti-ship missiles provide to enemies of the world s first-rate armies. For a fraction of the cost of US aircraft carriers the Houthis proved in late 2023 that they could hold the entire US Navy at bay with such missiles. After the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023 the Houthis intervened on the side of Hamas by launching a ceaseless wave of anti-ship attacks in the Red Sea. By doing so the Houthis complicated international shipping increased risk in that important industry and exploded the cost of goods for everyone since the global economy relies upon maritime trade . Besides the Houthis the Palestinian and Lebanese militant outfits are taking on the Israeli juggernaut and bleeding it where the conventional Arab armies failed during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israel wars. The Hamas-Israel and Hezbollah-Israel conflicts are not characterized by armoured columns sweeping through the Middle East deserts. Instead the world is increasingly swarmed with media footage showing masked Arab gunmen holding RPG-7 confronting Israeli tanks and APCs. These militant outfits fight with a blend of weapons built by Iran China Russia and North Korea. While following post-Cold War tactics suited to the changed battlefield scenarios Hezbollah and Hamas are trained and possess the discipline of professional armies. Their arsenals comprise small man-portable and unguided surface-to-surface artillery rockets. Although these devices lack precision their sheer number makes them effective weapons for bleeding the Israelis. Their Rockets are made from water pipes stuffed with a mixture of sugar and potassium nitrate an oxidizing agent. The quality and accuracy of the mixing and curing process can produce a propellant capable of reaching a specific impulse for a workable rocket. The much-publicized Iron Dome anti-missile system developed by Israel crashed in the Israel-Hamas War. The 21st Century militant outfits have one thing in common with the Vietcong and the Afghan Mujahideen they do not present tangible targets to their adversaries. In December 1979 the Soviets had sent their motor rifle divisions into Afghanistan expecting a Hungary or Czechoslovakia-like operation where the Soviet tanks had overawed and swept relatively soft educated and pondering-type urban populations. However unlike Eastern Europe the Soviets did not come across mobs of civilized street agitators in Afghanistan. Instead they faced battle-hardened fighters who attacked them in small groups and then melted away into the local population. Contrary to the CIA propaganda it has been variously reported that the Soviet troops sent into Afghanistan were ill-equipped poorly trained and improperly fed. Except for the famed Spetsnaz and recon infantry they were not sufficiently motivated to take on the Afghan fighter. It had been a long time since WW2 when the Russian soldier would attack his German counterpart with the ferocity of a cornered animal.

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