Climate change: impact on agriculture

Climate crisis has deeper implications for agriculture which is already facing formidable challenge of lower productivity in this time of food insecurity. Arable land is shrinking due to its overuse for the non-agricultural purposes — like transport projects, infrastructure development, new settlement patterns and establishing industries closer to water resources — across the world. Further, cultivable land is diminishing due to overgrazing of livestock which tramples the soil squeezing out air, water and nutrients. Livestock grazing on large expanses of grassy land generates about 15% to greenhouse gases and uses major portion of cultivable land causing deforestation and biodiversity. A third of global food production is at risk from climate crisis but at the same time our food production through agriculture is also major a contributor to carbon emissions causing climate breakdown. Thus, agriculture needs to develop itself environment friendly and meet the food demand which is expected to rise by 35% in the year 2030. Hence, switching over to modern methods of climate farming has become imperative for survival of mankind.

Agriculture in Pakistan accounts for 25% of its GDP. The country is one of the world’s top producers of food crops and fruits. Nevertheless, its productivity remains insufficient for domestic as well as commercial needs. Farmers in Pakistan are facing huge problems including water shortage, soil erosion and nutrition-deficient land and they are unable to access major farm inputs including good quality seeds, suitable fertiliser, irrigation and mechanisation. They are not provided with easy loans for purchasing farm inputs and handling climate contingencies. The performance of farmers largely depends on climatic conditions and thus it injects an element of uncertainty causing demotivation among farmers who have no access to fair price for their produce due to underdeveloped nature of market mechanism and weak government control. The lack of good water governance, ineffective planning for mitigating climatic catastrophes through community resilience further discourage farmers to take huge climate risks associated with farming in the absence of climate assurance policy.

Agriculture is very sensitive to climate because the agricultural practices are impacted by the variation in temperature and precipitation. Warmer temperatures can disturb the process of pollination at the time plants bloom. Air pollution also affects the photosynthesis process in plants and increases crop sensitivity to various diseases. Recent heavy rains in Pakistan not only damaged crops by eroding soil and depleting its nutrients but also affected the quality of water in lakes, rivers and other wetlands which further disturbed eco-system and affected coastal communities already stressed by pollution, warming marine waters and ocean acidification. Floods of 2022 drastically impacted agricultural productivity, killed livestock, destroyed houses and devastated the life in rural areas where health of farmers was endangered by various diseases caused by humidity and water pollution.

However, the production of food through organic means has more potential to deal with wider climate events in Pakistan. Organic crops are not treated by chemicals and pesticides. Thus, farmers use manure and compost and choose natural methods of pest control including crop rotation. Further, bagasse and other waste of crops is used to make chipboard and paper to replace plastic for producing environment friendly products. Further, increasing forest cultivation provides us timber and other necessary raw material for medicines and papermaking. Thus, environmental sustainability can be ensured by protecting forests against all risks including wildfire and by growing more mangrove trees. Moreover, diverse range of crops should be encouraged to minimise environmental degradation by using holistic approach of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA). New methods of intensified farming adaptable to local conditions should be encouraged to reduce the food insecurity affecting more than 30% of population. It needs to use modern agriculture techniques and significantly increases its present 47% of total land under cultivation.

Transforming farming on modern lines by globalising agricultural techniques for the benefit of agrarian community is important to learn from diverse experiences about how to avoid using conventional methods. New practices of monitoring health of livestock need to be applied, and hydroponic system should be encouraged to cut down on fertilisers and pesticides. In addition to mechanised farming, irrigation, temperature, lightening, water and level of carbon dioxide at farms should be monitored through digital means. Further, artificial intelligence should be used to supply farm inputs, protect crops from insects through aerial sprays and ensure crop surveillance through drone technology. Higher productivity-based farming should be encouraged to cater to the needs of a booming population. Pakistan needs to increase the production of staple as well as cash crops by using improved methods of irrigation in addition to use of good quality seeds and other inputs. The newly formed government has the economy as its foremost challenge ahead, but economic stability cannot come without increasing agricultural productivity on a sustained basis. Further, organic farming needs to be incentivised for the export purpose to earn foreign exchange. The government should facilitate farming community for cultivating those crops which are demanded in international market. Pakistan also needs to increase reining of coastline, inland, river, lake and aquaculture sources of fishing and remove inadequacies in quality control to fetch high prices abroad.

The incumbent government has accelerated its efforts to attract foreign investment by gearing up the Special Investment Facilitation Council and to broaden the horizons of CPEC during its second phase and digitalise economic sources. Chinese investment in Special Economic Zones would help diversify Pakistan’s export basket. Thus, the agriculture sector is expected to be upgraded. Green economy will be boosted by improving the conditions of farmers; developing infrastructure and markets; promoting climate friendly agriculture; focusing on robust technology transfer; and leveraging the expertise of agriculturists. It will enable Pakistan to support global response to complex transnational challenges of growing food and water insecurity and to substantially improve its agricultural output.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 12^th, 2024.

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