Election 2024 and after

With the 2024 general election over, the nation finds itself embroiled in controversy, reflecting a deeply polarised political landscape. Despite the PTI-backed Independent candidates returning as the majority bloc, it is the PML-N and PPP that have joined forces to form a coalition government at the Centre, hoping to strengthen the sinking economy and tackling the unforeseeable challenges that lie ahead.

Pakistan’s current political scenario is much more chaotic than in the past, primarily due to the ECP’s inability to conduct a fair election and guarantee transparency in its outcome. The legitimacy of the incoming government is also questionable, with the international media also raising concerns. Major powers, like the US and the UK, have raised suspicion, casting a shadow over the coalition government until allegations of election rigging are addressed. The judiciary can still play a crucial role in resolving rigging disputes by impartially examining evidence in the light of electoral laws and constitutional principles.

The incoming federal government is in for serious challenges demanding immediate attention. For instance, questions abound concerning Pakistan’s debt obligations in the coming years, monthly borrowing trends, performance of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, timeline for the next IMF review, impact of political instability on foreign investment, and severity of the security landscape. These issues are critical vis a vis charting a course towards economic revitalisation and stability. Economic experts see a challenging landscape for Pakistan, as a recent central bank report highlights an imminent debt servicing predicament, with external debt obligations amounting to $24 billion due by June 2024. Additionally, projections from the Institute of Peace indicate repayment of a staggering $77.5 billion in external debt, mostly domestic, by 2026. Experts also see a historic budget deficit at 7.6 per cent, translating to Rs8.2 trillion shortfall, necessitating additional borrowing beyond initial projections for June of this year. Inflation surged to 28.3 per cent in January 2024, with the IMF signalling the urgent need for substantial external financial support.

Additionally, reforms are needed to enhance operational efficiency across various sectors, including privatising loss-making state-owned enterprises. Tackling inflation and fortifying the nation’s security framework also top the agenda.

Besides the fiscal issues, terrorism remains a formidable challenge. Remember 750 terrorist attacks were recorded last year, culminating in 1,524 fatalities — the highest death toll since 2007. Also, the high number of out-of-school children and poverty rate are worrisome and require immediate attention. These challenges underscore the urgency for the incoming government to prioritise political stability to address these issues.

The PMLN-led federal government, with its fragmented mandate, will struggle to rein in strong provincial administrations grappling with political and financial challenges. A foreseeable discord between the federation and provinces might affect consensus on vital issues including the NFC Award, irrigation water, as well as provincial subjects such as healthcare, education, properties, lands and mineral resources.

Another challenge is maintaining bilateral relations with neighbouring countries. Managing relations with India, Iran and Afghanistan poses a significant challenge, given the US strategic interests in the region. The new government will be required to make bold policy decisions to strike a balance in its relations with China and the US alongside regaining importance in the Islamic bloc. IMF scrutiny of Chinese loans also remains a concern.

In conclusion, while Pakistan grapples with internal and external challenges, it must navigate a complex geopolitical landscape with foresight and strategic acumen to ensure that its national interests are safeguarded amidst shifting global dynamics.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 29^th, 2024.

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