Looking for miracles

So finally, the post-vote dust is settling down in Pakistan’s troubled parliamentary democracy. PMLN’s Maryam Nawaz is the first female Chief Minister of Punjab. Murad Ali Shah of PPP continues as CM Sindh. Balochistan is aligning with PMLN, PPP coalition after a pro-Centre government is cobbled. And KPK will likely stay with PTI. Centre, after some dithering by the PTI-era President, goes to coalition.

Nawaz Sharif, as advised by Party stalwarts, decided to abstain from premiership, letting Shehbaz Sharif run the show after a crash course of 16 months in PDM 1.0. Although occupying the PM House for the 4^th time is heady, there is no more the proverbial ‘heavy mandate’; there is not even a simple majority; the urgency of defanging NAB and leniency in cases was achieved during PDM stint earlier; and the Army has new leadership appointed by PDM, that would continue.

On PPP, I have always maintained that PPP among all political players has more cerebral power. Bilawal’s country-wide campaign to mobilise voters enabled PPP to re-assert ‘some’ presence outside Sindh also. PDM 1.0 trained Bilawal at federal level and provided relief to Zardari in court cases. Both parties, minus the recent stint in power, would have done more poorly at the polls. With Zardari as future President, one hopes PDM 2.0 would continue to be receptive to some critical advice, at crucial junctures, from critical quarters, in the larger national interest. Centre and Punjab essentially under one coalition auger well for stability and economy.

The PTI, a great beneficiary of the vote of no-confidence in 2021 and the subsequent chaos, is greatly tainted for its relentless media onslaught against Army, especially its senior leadership; for polarising the society dangerously; for spreading despondency and hopelessness; for inculcating lack of tolerance; and for attempting munity on 9^th May 2023, where state and its institutions were subjected to attacks at over 200 places. Yet riding the bandwagon of emotions and sympathy, its popularity remains at an all-time high. PTI’s dexterous use of social media continues to paint it in a positive light before gullible youth bulge and other citizenry, which is vulnerable to anti-state antics and subversion through propaganda.

PTI’s propaganda and narrative are so effective that even level-headed, experienced, and educated citizenry — well-grounded in nationalism and affinity for national institutions — is also subverted. The ‘Echo Chamber’ technique in propaganda impacts minds, and many seasoned retired bureaucrats, civil and military, now see things in ‘black and white’ despite managing ‘grey’ all their lives. Some military veterans, while still unabashedly enjoying the Military-provided perks and privileges, over and above their authorisation and entitlement, have sadly fallen prey to the Echo Chamber, and have been swept away by the tides of negativity, falsehoods, and outright deceitfulness.

PTI disproportionately benefitted from ‘angry’ and ‘sympathy’ votes. ‘Angry’ vote for PTI ‘ostensibly’ standing up to the powerful quarters (notwithstanding the behind-the-scenes messaging); and ‘sympathy’ vote for its imprisoned leadership and the perceived state excesses. The perception of being an underdog always helps in Pakistani politics.

The barbs by other political players, like JUIF’s Fazlur Rehman, are simply the expressed fears for loss of relevance, clout and the attendant financial windfall. Yes, the MQM is resurrected again, and they are known for exacting steeper political prices in coalitions.

So that is how the political chessboard is now arranged with many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’. Pro-stability forces never had and still do not have better options. ‘Perhaps’ the PTI-engendered energy through angry vote and its ‘reported’ rigging in KPK were incorrectly factored in. In one’s pre-election assessment, KPK was solidly behind PTI, leaving no scope for all other parties combined. However, KPK going to PTI might have silver lining for a PMLN-run Centre. One, the province is reportedly over Rs900 billion in debt to the Centre, and even if the payable electricity royalties etc to the province are taken out, KPK is still in the red by a colossal Rs500 billion. And that means reliance on the federal pool and assistance. Any recourse to the Federal ‘assistance’ with a politically hostile dispensation without the Military’s help, as the ANP-led nationalist coalition during Zardari-era would wisely do, would simply increase PTI/KPK’s financial woes. This would translate into voter discontent and loss of support. Two, even without the cited financial difficulties, PTI cannot match voter expectations running sky-high.

Three, PTI remains inexperienced and inept at governance. Most of its elected legislators are inexperienced freshmen. It is no secret that PTI was greatly helped by the Military during its earlier tenures in KPK and Islamabad. Minus Military’s support and left to the pettiness of its rank and file (like all other parties), PTI will likely underperform drastically. Four, its leaders with eyes on the financial pie may feel disappointed and become amenable to floor-crossing.

As far as Islamabad goes, the Shehbaz-Zardari combine would help weather the initial storm, under the gelling and healing mentoring of Miltablishment. Zardari being a savvy politician knows the realities of Pakistan’s political culture more than any other politician. His partnership with an ‘exposed’ Shehbaz Sharif would likely usher in the much-needed stability in the short-term. Beyond that on the event horizon, the going gets tough. Loans are to be paid. The economy is to be stabilised. Legislators who spent fortunes on elections would need recompense and ‘some’ profit. Country must be governed right. PTI-led agitation and negative sentiment must be fended off. A divided nation must be healed…the list is long. Coalitions like sharakat-dari (partnership) in business do not espouse too much hope and ultimately unravel, as the motto of politics remains financial gain for self, family, biradari (clan), village and beyond…in that sequence. Country is generally the last, and this is the hard reality of contemporary Pakistan.

In one’s ‘extreme’ reckoning, PTI should have been ‘enabled’ to form the government again, to respond to its emotional majority, perceptual deprivation through vote-management, and its sense of entitlement being majority seat-taker. The strategic dictum of ‘never reinforcing a failure’; the argument that PTI will ruin an already weakened economy beyond redemption; PTI’s combative governance style and inexperience should have been ‘temporarily’ put aside. In any case, the party would not have completed a full-term, due to its continuing ineptitude; having raised public expectations unattainably high; and the 9^th May mutiny trial, yet to commence. The winds from PTI’s sails would have been out sooner than expected, and in the next election, it would have ‘probably’ confined to KPK.

So, that dear reader is the calling…but miracles happen!

Published in The Express Tribune, February 29^th, 2024.

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