Global oil demand growth is losing momentum, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday as it trimmed its 2024 growth forecast, in sharp contrast to the view held by producer group OPEC.
The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, has predicted that oil demand will peak by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy. OPEC, meanwhile, expects oil use to keep rising for the next two decades.
Monthly reports this week from the two forecasters underlined their starkly different estimates for 2024 oil demand.
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The IEA’s monthly report on Thursday said it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.22 million bpd this year, slightly down from last month’s estimate. OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its much steeper growth forecast at 2.25 million bpd. In the IEA’s view, the deceleration this year, about half of the growth in 2023, is linked to a slowdown in Chinese consumption. The IEA had previously forecast 2024 demand growth of 1.24 million bpd.
“The expansive post-pandemic growth phase in global oil demand has largely run its course,” the IEA said, adding that a harsher global macroeconomic climate is also likely to constrain growth this year.
The Brent oil benchmark has risen about 6% so far this year as attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have raised supply fears.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 16th, 2024.
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