The question of de jure legitimacy to Taliban regime

China is the only United Nations member state so far that has granted de jure recognition to the Taliban regime which rose to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. China allowed Kabul to open its embassy in Beijing by formally asking the Taliban ambassador to submit his credentials to the Chinese president. Earlier, some UN member states, including Pakistan and Russia, had granted de facto recognition to the Taliban regime as conditions — like the formation of an inclusive government in Kabul and removing reservations about rights to the women pertaining to their education and work — remains pending.

On several occasions, the UN has taken a strong position against human rights violations committed under the Taliban regime particularly against women. The US — under whose initiative Doha Accord was signed on February 29, 2020 with the Taliban — had focused on military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the formation of an inclusive government in that country. What the world has rather seen under the Taliban rule is an exclusive government with no representation from the opposition groups and other stakeholders. Taliban imposed an authoritarian mode of governance in which democracy and political pluralism are not seen. Taliban regime is not bothered to address criticism from various sides that during its rule Afghanistan is again becoming a hub of terrorism where the nexus between TTP, Al-Qaeda and other jihadi groups is a stark reality.

With the interim Taliban government failing to implement major clauses of Doha Accord, the UN has declined its representation and a majority of its members have refused to grant legitimacy to the regime. As pointed out earlier, China became the first and only country so far to have granted legitimacy to the Taliban regime by accepting its ambassador in Beijing. The Chinese decision will perhaps pave the way for other countries to grant de jure recognition to the Taliban regime despite its denial of right to education, employment and unrestricted travel to its women population.

Will China granting de jure legitimacy to the Taliban regime encourage other countries to follow suit, thus easing pressure on Kabul to fully implement Doha accord? Will the Chinese decision help the process of modernising the Afghan infrastructure and mitigate Kabul’s isolation at the international level?

Certainly, the ultra-conservative and retrogressive Taliban regime will use gradual legitimacy for consolidating power and denying political space to the opposition. According to April 7, 2023 release of Radio Free Europe, “The militant group’s human rights abuses and links to extremist groups have once again made it a pariah. The international community has blacklisted Taliban leaders and cut off the group from the global financial system. But the Taliban has tried to boost its legitimacy by wresting control of Afghan diplomatic missions abroad, many of which are still run by diplomats appointed by the previous government. The hard-line Islamist group claims that it has a diplomatic presence in 14 countries, including in all neighboring countries barring Tajikistan. The group is also believed to have gained control of missions in Russia, China, Turkey, and Indonesia”.

How far the people of Afghanistan will benefit from China providing diplomatic space to the Taliban regime is yet to be seen. The issue can be analysed from three sides, as follows:

First, unlike the previous Taliban regime of 1996-2001 which controlled 90% of Afghanistan, the present interim government has 100% control over the Afghan territory. Unlike the previous Taliban regime when there was an organised resistance group called Northern Alliance, there is no cogent threat to the current regime. It means this time, the Taliban have managed to extend their writ to the whole of Afghanistan and are using their success to seek more and more international legitimacy. If China is the first global power to have granted de jure legitimacy to the interim Taliban regime, how will the West, particularly the US and EU, respond to their growing engagement? Washington has made it clear that Taliban have violated Doha Accord by not establishing an inclusive government. Not a single step has been taken by Kabul to follow democratic mode of governance including political pluralism, tolerance to dissent and granting girls and women equal rights in education and employment. On the contrary, the Taliban interim government takes pride in unleashing gender discrimination and is not reluctant to use force in order to prevent their participation in society.

Second, the Taliban regime has cleverly tried to show to the world that it is following a moderate and pro-development approach. By projecting its development schemes like construction of a mega canal system, roads, highways and railways, the Taliban regime is trying to get international support in order to revive economy and promote international trade. Giving contracts to foreign companies, particularly from China, to exploit enormous mineral resources tends to provide space to the Taliban regime at the expense of political freedom and gender discrimination. Patience and perseverance happen to be qualities pursued by the Taliban regime by not reacting to accusations in a hostile manner about its poor track record on human rights. The previous Taliban regime had been granted recognition by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE but by September 11, 2001, only Pakistan had diplomatic relations with Kabul. This time, it seems, it will manage to seek de jure recognition from Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and India. Strategically, the Taliban regime is playing its cards well by luring foreign powers, except the West, to grant it legitimacy in return for trade and investments and making use of its huge mineral resources.

Finally, the onus will be on the US and its Western allies as to what extent they will resist legitimising the Taliban regime. So far, the UN has not granted legitimacy to the Taliban rule — as was the case with the previous Taliban government too — but for how long the reality of the Taliban controlling 100% of Afghanistan, ensuring peace in the country and focusing on the development can be denied. By doing away with its exclusive mode of governance and human rights violation that run contrary to Doha Accord, Taliban rule can win international legitimacy.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 13^th, 2024.

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