Pakistan’s Afghan conundrum and China’s move

On 29 January, a UN Monitoring team submitted its 33^rd report to the UN Security Council, providing details about the terrorist threats posed by different groups across the globe. The 32-page report sheds light on the current state of affairs in Afghanistan with respect to the presence of terrorist outfits. The Afghan Taliban returned to power in August 2021 after the Ghani administration and the much-touted Afghan National Army whittled away without putting up any resistance.

The Taliban may have come to power but their international recognition hinged on the group fulfilling the commitments made under the Doha deal. One key condition was that the Afghan Taliban would sever ties with al-Qaeda and would never allow Afghan soil to be used by terrorist outfits. But the latest UN report has revealed that al-Qaeda has established 8 new bases in four provinces of Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return to power. For Pakistan, the UN report was vindication of its stance. It says the banned TTP strengthened under the Taliban rule. In fact, the UN report claims the Afghan Taliban are “generally sympathetic to the TTP and its aims”. It also notes that some Afghan Taliban members joined the TTP, considering it their religious. Similarly, the report reveals that the Afghan Taliban have been regularly giving aid packages to the TTP and their families. Other groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which China considers a security threat, are prevalent in Afghanistan. ETIM may have been relocated from the Chinese border but it has freedom to recruit and train militants.

But despite this damning report against the Taliban government, major powers seem following a pragmatic approach towards Afghanistan. Last week, China became the first country to accept a Taliban-appointed full time Ambassador to Beijing. Bilal Karimi presented his diplomatic credentials to President Xi Jinping in a ceremony at the Great Hall of China.

China has not made any comment though, diplomatic sources and observers believe that this move is a ‘tacit recognition’ of the Afghan Taliban government. According to sources, China has apparently taken a “solo flight” with disregard to the regional countries’ earlier understanding; and regional countries, particularly the immediate neighbours of Afghanistan, have decided that a decision to recognise the Taliban government would be taken with consensus and collectively.

But China seems to have taken a more pragmatic stance and is willing to work with the Taliban government despite the international community’s concerns.

The Chinese move at this juncture when Pakistan wanted to put maximum pressure on the Taliban to tackle the terror threat was quite telling. Pakistan was hoping that Taliban would be made to come good on their promises through collective regional efforts. China figured prominently in that policy.

Officials here feel that China’s near recognition of the Taliban government would only embolden Kabul that might make it even harder for Pakistan to get its concerns addressed.

In fact, in the wake of the Chinese move, the chief Taliban spokesperson took to X and said: “China has understood what the rest of the world has not.”

Other sources feel that China’s burgeoning ties with the Afghan Taliban could help Pakistan advance its interests since this may give more leverage to China over the Taliban.

Meanwhile, the US is cautiously exploring the possibility of reopening its consulate in Afghanistan without officially recognising the Taliban, according to a new strategy approved by the State Department.

One factor that compelled the US to consider opening its diplomatic mission in Afghanistan is that it fears that countries like Russia, China and Iran will extend its strategic and economic influence in the country in the absence of Washington. This suggests regional and big powers are once again competing for their interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan, which currently has tense ties with the Taliban regime, needs to recalibrate its strategy accordingly.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 5^th, 2024.

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