K-P gearing up for an interesting election

PTI seems to be the party to beat in the province, however its legal troubles will aid the likes of JUI-F

PESHAWAR:

After much ado, a general election is merely days away now; and the populace of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) will get to decide whether the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) secures an unprecedented third term in the province or if a new sheriff will come into town.

Albeit the PTI is engulfed in a myriad of legal crises, which includes the recent loss of its popular electoral cricket bat symbol, the party’s popularity does not seem to have dwindled in the northwestern province of the country. However, the loss of its electoral symbol means that those who were running for the election on the party’s ticket are now being considered as independent candidates. Be that as it may, the PTI backed independent candidates have a tough fight on their hands as they will compete for the province’s 45 National Assembly seats and 145 K-P Assembly seats with parties such as the Jamiat Ulema Islam Fazal (JUI-F), Awami National Party (ANP), Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and the recently formed Pakistan Tehreek Insaf Parliamentarians (PTI-P).

One of these tough electoral fights will be seen on NA-30, where the PTI’s candidate of choice, Shandana Gulzar, will go head-to-head against the JUI-F’s Nasir Musazai, and the ANP’s Arbab Zain Umer. This constituency, which was previously referred to as NA-29, was won by Nasir in the 2018 general election, who was associated with the PTI at that point. With Nasir now having joined the JUI-F, it remains to be seen whether he will get to retain his PTI vote bank.

Another interesting constituency is NA-31, which has a headcount of some 953,000 people, and consists of the posh areas of Peshawar, such as Hayatabad, University Road, Peshawar Cantt, and University Town. PTI’s Hamidul Haq and Sher Ali Arbab won this constituency in 2013 and 2018, respectively. This time around Sher Ali is contesting again as the PTI backed independent candidate, and will face off against JUI-F’s Maulana Syedullah Jan, ANP’s Pir Haroon Shah, PPP’s Arbab Alamgir, and PML-N’s Sobia Shahid.

Similarly, NA-32 is also a key constituency and has the potential to be a standout contest in K-P’s electoral race. It is pertinent to mention that two former prime ministers, Benazir Bhutto and Imran Khan, have both contested from this constituency in the past. It is also worthwhile mentioning that in the 2008 general election the ANP’s central leader Haji Ghulam Ahmed Bilour won from this constituency, whereas in 2013 the PTI’s founding chairman Khan took the seat; however, when Imran vacated the seat, Ghulam Ahmed won it in the subsequent by-election. Nevertheless, Ghulam Ahmed could not retain the seat as in the 2018 general election PTI’s Shaukat Ali won the seat. This time around Ghulam Ahmed of the ANP will be up against the PTI backed Asif Khan, JUI-F’s Hussain Ahmad Madani, and the PML-N’s Sher Rehman.

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Likewise, political analysts also expect a cracker of a contest in the NA-28 constituency. In the general election of 2013 PTI’s Sajid Nawaz won this constituency from the ANP and then the PTI’s Noor Alam Khan was able to retain it in the 2018 general election. Noor, who has now joined the JUI-F and who was a central figure amongst PTI’s defectors of 2022, will face off against PTI backed Sajid, PPP’s Kiramatullah Chagharmati, Jamaat-e-Islami’s (JI) Hafiz Hashmat, and ANP’s Muhammad Fayyaz.

Further away NA-28, NA-20 of Swabi will also have an interesting contest, as Usman Khan Tarakai has been winning the constituency for the past three general elections. Usman first won the constituency in the 2008 general elections against the ANP’s Asfandyar Wali Khan, then won as the candidate of Awami Jamhuri Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP) in the 2013 general elections, and won again in the 2018 general election as the PTI’s candidate. This time around Usman is contesting from the PPP and that too against his own PTI backed nephew Shahram Khan Tarakai. Both Usman and Shahram will be joined in the exciting electoral contest by JUI-F’s Abdur Raheem, JI’s Mehmood ul Hassan, and other independent candidates.

Some 80 kilometres away from Swabi, in NA-24 of Charsadda, Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherapo, who is the Chairman of the Qaumi Watan Party, will take on Anwar Taj. It is pertinent to mention that Anwar defeated Aftab Ahmed in the 2018 general election on the PTI’s ticket.

Another important Charsadda constituency is NA-25, especially for the ANP, as its provincial president Aimal Wali Khan, who is the son of party’s President Asfandyar Wali Khan, will contest against the PTI’s Fazal Khan. This constituency was won by Maulan Gohar Shah of the JUI-F in the 2013 general election, who was not able to retain it as PTI’s Fazal won it in the 2018 general election and that too against Aimal. This time around Aimal and Fazal will compete again in the constituency in what is expected to be a nail-biting contest.

Further away from Charsadda, NA-44 is an important constituency of Dera Ismail Khan. In this constituency JUI-F chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, will take on Ali Amin Gandapur of the PTI, Faisal Karim Kundi of the PPP, Syed Mehmood Jawad of the PTI-P, and Sherullah Khan of the ANP. Fazl won this constituency back in 2002 but in the 2008 general election lost to Faisal of the PPP. He then won the constituency again in the 2013 general election but lost it to PTI’s Ali. A three-way contest is expected again between Fazl, Faisal and Ali from this constituency.

Interesting contests are also expected on the provincial seats. For instance, PK-72, where PTI’s Mehmood Jan, will take on the PPP’s Karamatullah, ANP’s Aziz Ghaffar Khan, and PML-N’s Azmat Khan. A similarly exciting contest is also expected in PK-74, where PTI’s Arbab Jahandad will contest against PTI-P’s Muhammad Sharif. It is pertinent to mention that Arbab has won this constituency for the PTI twice before.

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Another important constituency is PK-83, both for the PTI and the ANP, and a fierce contest is expected here by political analysts. PTI backed Meena Khan Afridi will take on Samar Haroon Bilour of the ANP in this constituency. A fierce contest is also expected in PK-58 of Mardan, former chief minister Haider Khan Hoti, who is associated with the ANP, will take on Abdus Salam Wazir, who is an independent candidate backed by the PTI.

Commenting on the general election, former head of the political science department of the University of Peshawar, Dr Abdul Rauf, was of the view that the election results would be surprising for many. “Even though PTI is popular in the province, its political activities have been hindered and it is also handicapped due to the arrest of its main leaders. Therefore it is hard to predict which party will emerge victorious in K-P,” Dr Abdul opined.

“While I cannot predict a winner, it is a fact that the country is going through a very challenging situation and only a free and fair elections can help steer the country towards stability,” the former head of the political science department of the University of Peshawar, added.

Senior journalist, Lehaz Ali, concurring with Dr Abdul’s assessment of the elections in K-P, remarked that it was no doubt that the PTI was a popular party in the province but since the party was not being allowed to campaign freely it would hamper the party’s prospect on February 8th. “Most of the PTI’s candidates have been forced to campaign silently as they could not conduct rallies or jalsas. Had they been allowed to campaign freely, the political situation in K-P would be different,” observed Lehaz.

“Given the PTI’s predicament in the province, I expect that the JUI-F might be able to carve out space for itself as a majority party, after all the JUI-F did well in the local bodies election and won the mayoral election of Peshawar,” the journalist predicted while talking to The Express Tribune.