Can TLP emerge as a dark horse?
The Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) has emerged as the third major party in terms of candidates fielded across the country for the upcoming general elections. According to a TLP spokesperson, the party's candidates will contest elections in 226 out of 264 National Assembly seats.
In the Punjab Assembly, TLP candidates will participate in elections for 295 out of 297 seats. In the Sindh Assembly, its candidates will contest elections on the party's ticket for 120 out of 130 seats.
In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the party's candidates will compete in elections for 50 out of 115 provincial seats, while in Balochistan, they will contest elections for 22 out of 51 seats.
The TLP's meteoric rise in the country's political scene has startled many.
The religious scholars who had come together to fight the legal battle for Mumtaz Hussain Qadri, a policeman who assassinated Punjab's former governor Salman Taseer in January 2011, laid the foundation of the political group after Qadri’s execution in 2016 under the PML-N’s rule.
However, few people knew about the party before it marched on Islamabad in November 2017 to stage a historic sit-in in protest against alleged changes in the lawmakers’ oath affirming that the Holy Prophet (PBUH) is the last messenger of God.
The sit-in forced the PML-N government to remove its federal law minister, Zahid Hamid, and made the TLP’s deceased chief, Allama Khadim Hussain Rivzi, a household name in Pakistan.
Then came the July 2018 general elections in which the TLP participated with great fanfare. While the party failed to win any seats in the National Assembly and managed to secure only two general seats in the Sindh Assembly, it emerged as the fifth largest party in terms of votes received nationally.
During the TLP’s campaign, the party targeted the PML-N, causing a major dent in their vote bank in Punjab. A Gallup survey showed that 46% of those who voted for the TLP in 2018 said they had voted for the PML-N in 2013. It also showed that between the 2013 and 2018 general elections, the PML-N lost nine percent of its vote bank nationally, with three to four percent being lost to the TLP, not the PTI.
Surpassing the PPP in terms of the number of votes received in Punjab, the TLP emerged as the third largest party in the province, with four out of every five votes polled for the party coming from Punjab.
Additionally, there are 14 NA constituencies in Punjab where the PML-N lost and the TLP received more votes than the difference between votes polled by the returned candidates and runners-up.
During the PTI’s rule, the TLP faced a massive crackdown after Khadim Rizvi announced a protest in January 2019 following the release of Aasia Masih, a woman who was earlier convicted by the Lahore High Court (LHC) for alleged blasphemy.
The TLP’s firebrand chief, Khadim Hussain Rizvi, died in November 2020, and his young son, Hafiz Saad Rizvi, replaced him as the new chief of the party, which represents the Sunni Barelvi school of thought.
It remains to be seen whether the young Rizvi will be able to carry forward the party, which, some believe, is too inexperienced in electoral politics.