Attack on democracy

On 5^th January i.e. just seven days before the announcement of the final list of candidates for the upcoming general election, while judges of the Appellate Tribunals were busy undoing the injustice that the District Returning Officers (DROs) and Returning Officers (ROs) had unleashed on thousands of election candidates, merely one dozen Senators conspired to sabotage the already highly controversial election by passing a resolution demanding delay in polling fixed for 8^th February. Though uncertainty had already gripped the nation as to the fate of the election, the sudden passage of the resolution seeking delay in the polling shook the nation. Besides the content of the Senate resolution, it is the timing as well as the way it was presented and passed that need to be examined. Equally there is a need to appreciate the prompt reaction that appears to have frightened both the silent and the hidden supporters of the resolution.

But let’s first examine the justification that is being used to demand election delay. The resolution demands postponement of polls to facilitate “effective participation of people from all areas of Pakistan and belonging to all shades”. The resolution cites three major factors that are likely to prevent people from participating in election. First, January and February are the coldest months in majority of districts of Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces. This is of course true. The resolution also claims that in moderate months, voter turnout in the coldest districts have always been high. The datasets of past elections negate the claim of the Senators.

For instance, out of eight past general elections since 1970, four were held during winter months. I checked the turnout in the extremely cold areas of Pakistan — Chitral, Swat and Dir — and found little variation in the turnouts between elections held during winter, summer or spring. Consider the following table. It appears that more than the weather, political factors caused the rise in turnout in many areas of the country. For instance, PTI’s popularity in K-P had influenced a large number of youths in the province, which might have played major role in this regard.

Area July18 May13 Feb08 Oct02 Feb97 Oct93 Oct90 Nov88 Dec70

Chitral 61% 64.4% 45.5% 49% 41.5 49% 56% 51% 36.6%

Swat 40% 36% 18% 32% 25.4 32% 31% 30% 39.5%

Dir 46% 32.6% 27% 30% 19.4 28% 29% 30% 30.4%

Source: ECP Reports

However, 2008 election witnessed huge decline in the voter turnout in Swat, and that had nothing to do with cold. It was primarily due to terrorism as the violent groups had literally captured huge swaths of the district. Interestingly many areas including Chitral, Dir and FATA agencies witnessed above normal turnout in 2013 and 2018 — apparently due to the PTI factor.

PATTAN and Coalition38 with whom the author is associated conducted a survey to ascertain opinions of voters regarding elections. The survey was held during the first half of December. As some politicians, including Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Asif Ali Zardari, had argued delaying the election based on the grounds that the Senate resolution contains. We also thought it was necessary to assess the intentions of the people that reside in would-be snow-clad areas regarding the impact of extreme weather on turnout. Though two-thirds of the respondents expressed doubts about the holding of polling on 8^th February, 84% of the respondents from Chitral, Dir, Swat, Abbottabad and Malakand wanted polling on the scheduled date. Interestingly 92% of those who said they would vote for PML-N also wanted election on the date announced, while 91% of the PTI supporters agreed with them. Therefore, the turnout record of past elections and opinion of voters clearly disagree with the posturing of the 12 Senators.

Now, let’s consider the second major reason — the security situation — for demanding election postponement. Recall security situation leading up to general election 2008. Benazir Bhutto was assassinated on 27^th December 2007 — just 12 days before the polling that was to be held on 8^th January 2008. As a result, polling was delayed, albeit for five weeks, finally taking place on 18^th February. The security situation was far worse during the electioneering period than today’s. However, one should not ignore the threat. Therefore, both citizens and the state institutions must be fully prepared to prevent the security situation from worsening in coming days. But we must face the challenge rather than surrendering to the terrorists and postponing the elections. A pertinent question needs to be posed at those want the elections delayed: will the security situation improve in the coming spring or in summer? On the contrary, very often in the past during moderate weather generally incidences of violence and terrorism have increased.

In fact, the real intentions behind attempts at delaying the election lie elsewhere. As argued earlier also, the parties and leaders sent packing from power by hidden forces were never allowed to get back into the saddle, at least immediately. And very often, the sacked leaders have accepted their dismissal as a fait accompli and never posed any serious resistance. History does repeat itself — but not always. Pakistan’s recent politics is a case in point. The party that was thrown out of power in April 2022 is not ready to take it lying down and continues to resist. Hence, we see all the ugly tactics to delay elections. It is neither the weather nor the security situation that pose any threat to a smooth holding of elections, it is in fact the huge gap in the popular support of PTI and the establishment-backed rival parties due to which we see dirty tactics to delay the vote.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 12^th, 2024.

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