Madness on Peninsula

Sole factor that could deescalate crisis is China’s involvement, and its irresistible influence

Kim Jong-Un’s brinkmanship is no secret. The North Korean leader, perhaps, is obsessed with militarism, and thinks of nothing but warfare. So he did as the resolve for the New Year by calling upon his traumatised nation to prepare for a ‘war’, and went on to reassure that “it could break [out] anytime” on the polarised peninsula. This warmongering threat is not new, but what ails and raises many eyebrows is the fact that the jingoistic leader has added many more lethal stockpiles to his military gear, and quite recently had a successful launch of a reconnaissance satellite, and enshrined its status as a nuclear power in its constitution.

It seems what happened in Europe in the last century as the continental powers fought for supremacy is being repeated on the straits of Koreas. Pyongyang, with its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles and one of the most secretive military muscles in the world would hardly care for a surprise first attack, if pushed to the wall. That means mutually assured destruction for not only North Korea, but also the region at large. The launching of spy satellites, building unmanned drones and developing electronic warfare capabilities, coupled with nuclear arsenal, makes the military junta a threat to peace and security. This is why Kim’s raising of threat levels should not be read leniently, and it would be a strategic blunder to brush it aside as a stunt.

The situation is fraught with consequences, and becomes more cumbersome as the United States involves itself in a proactive manner. Washington’s deployment of a nuclear-powered submarine in Busan, South Korea, and drills with Seoul and Tokyo raises the momentum of madness. While Kim is not a believer in diplomacy, and has time and again ditched the brethren in the South by snubbing rapprochement gestures across the 39-Parallel underlines the fact that it is tough to deal with him. The sole factor that could deescalate the crisis is China’s involvement, and its irresistible influence in ensuring a climb-down.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 3^rd, 2024.

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