Where the Kashmiris should go from here

India reneges from commitment to hold plebiscite, curtailed autonomy of state, imposing direct control from Delhi.

Following the verdict of Indian Supreme Court whereby it rejected petitions challenging Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act of August 5, 2019 and the revocation of article 370 of the Indian constitution, it is time for Kashmiris should move on and protect their future amid New Delhi’s plans to consolidate its rule on the disputed territory.

Kashmiri leaders like Ghulam Nabi Azad, Mahbooba Mufti, Omar Abdullah and Mirwaiz Umar Farooq expressed their resentment over the top court judgment and vowed to continue their struggle for restoration of Jammu & Kashmir autonomy. India’s steady and systematic absorption of J&K culminated on August 5, 2019 when the Modi regime revoked article 370 which guaranteed special status for the occupied region. Prior to that, J&K Assembly was dissolved in 2018 leading to the imposition of governor’s rule. In the absence of consent from the state assembly for revoking article 370, the entire exercise by New Delhi left legal flaws which were challenged in the Supreme Court.

Where do Kashmiris go from here? How will the Modi regime use the Supreme Court verdict to seek legitimacy in the occupied territory? What are the options for Pakistan to deal with the situation emanating from the Supreme Court verdict?

When the special status of J&K was revoked by the Indian parliament on August 5 2019 under J&K Reorganization Act, several petitions were filed in the Indian Supreme Court against the New Delhi’s illegal act. At the time of revocation of article 370 and subsequent endorsement by the President of India, there was no state assembly in Srinagar and J&K was ruled directly by the Centre. Without the consent of state assembly the revocation of article 370 was illegal.

The process of erosion of article 370 (which granted special status to Jammu & Kashmir) and article 35-A (which prevented permanent residency to Indian nationals; casting of vote in elections; and buying property) had been going on for long. Originally, after the so-called instrument of accession signed by the Maharaja of Kashmir and the Indian government following the partition of the Indian sub-continent in August 1947, article 370 was inserted in the Indian constitution in October 1949 which guaranteed autonomy to the state of J&K to the extent that it would have its own flag, President and Prime Minister and it would not be governed under the Indian constitution. It was India which had taken the issue of J&K to the UNSC and agreed to hold plebiscite to determine if the people of Kashmir wanted to join India or Pakistan. With the passage of time, India reneged from its commitment to hold a plebiscite and curtailed the autonomy of the state by gradually imposing direct control from Delhi. Governor’s rule was imposed in J&K many a time and the popular uprising was brutally treated with the deployment of Indian Army and paramilitary force.

Delhi’s repressive tactics brutalised further in the wake of the revocation of article 370 on August 5, 2019, resulting in the division of J&K and Ladakh as union territories under the pretext of carrying out development programmes and establishing better governance through administrative measures. And now, the Indian Supreme Court on December 11 not only endorsed scrapping of article 370 and 35-A but also legalised the act of the President to absorb J&K in Indian Union.

In an unsuccessful balancing act, the top court ordered holding elections in J&K by September 2024 and reviving its statehood. The question is: will New Delhi be able to hold elections — let alone free and fair — amid hostile popular sentiments in the occupied state and the presence of half a million troops? Failure to do so will further polarise the situation in the troubled territory and lead to further human rights violations. One needs to analyse the situation emanating from the Supreme Court judgment on J&K from thee angles.

First, making use of the Supreme Court verdict, the Modi regime will adopt measures, particularly in the Valley of Kashmir, to show to the outside world that local people have given it up on their resolve for freedom from India. By launching development programmes with international collaboration, India intend to neutralise those elements of Kashmiri society who still want to seek independence or greater autonomy within the Indian union. Kashmiri leaders who have rejected the Supreme Court verdict may strategise their planning to deny BJP an electoral space in future assembly elections as ordered by the court. By using the power of the vote, Kashmiris can thwart New Delhi plans to consolidate its hold over J&K. Kashmiris can strengthen their resolve to gain political control by defeating pro-Indian elements in assembly elections.

Second, the moment the August 5, 2019 restrictions are lifted, the people of J&K will prove their resolve to manage their affairs without the dictates of New Delhi. India will try to expedite the settlements of non-Muslims by issuing them domicile certificates and allowing them to buy property in the disputed territory, but it is yet to be seen how people in the Muslim majority state will allow colonisation of local territory and resources. The Modi regime may be confident that it will win the May 2024 general elections in India and consolidate its hold over J&K for good. But, without the support of local people, it will be an uphill task for New Delhi to implement its age-old agenda of colonising J&K. By holding events like G-20 tourism conference and planning a beauty contest in Srinagar, hearts and minds of Kashmiris cannot be won.

Finally, for Pakistan the situation is highly unfavourable. Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani’s assertion that his government would approach the UN, EU and OIC against the Indian Supreme Court verdict will not work because the international community seems indifferent to the Kashmir issue in view of New Delhi’s clout on global affairs. Furthermore, Pakistan’s economy and politics have reached new levels of fragility which are preventing Islamabad from exerting diplomatic pressure on India.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 19^th, 2023.

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