In a year dominated by record-breaking temperatures and a surge in natural disasters, COP28, the 28th Conference of the Parties, being held in the United Arab Emirates, presents yet another decisive moment to expedite global climate action and secure the 1.5-degree target. However, the deck is stacked against a successful outcome.
The world, according to experts, is currently grappling with a 'climate emergency.' Unrelenting heat waves have sizzled large swathes of Europe, the United States, and parts of Asia, leaving countries helpless against severe weather conditions. From Puerto Rico to Pakistan, Iran, India, and all the way to Siberia, climate records have not just been shattered, but smashed. Temperatures continue to soar to dangerous levels, resulting in accelerated ice melting, rising sea levels, and the widespread spread of tropical diseases. The mobilisation of climate refugees crossing international borders has reached alarming numbers, already sparking concerns of xenophobia. The Lancet Commission predicts that up to 1 billion climate refugees could cross international borders within this century, and that tells of the critical nature of the climate crisis and its impact.
The negotiators in Dubai have big gaps to bridge. They need to elevate the level of ambition for bolder climate action, accelerate the energy transition, adopt a robust framework for adaptation, get the loss and damage fund, established at COP27 to help poorer nations pay for climate damages, up and running, and reach an agreement on a framework for the Paris Agreement’s global goal on adaptation (GGA). However, according to experts, COP28 faces two challenges: the lack of political will and the considerable influence of fossil fuel delegates and lobbyists. And adding to the complexity, one of their own, Sultan Al Jaber, UAE’s oil baron, and conference president, holds the gavel. All of this combined makes it a tall order for these negotiators who are spending long hours haggling over how to limit global warming.
According to a new report from UN Climate Change, released shortly before COP28, governments around the world are already “massively off track” on climate action. The global stocktake synthesis report cautions that much more needs to be done to meet the goals of the landmark Paris Agreement, struck at COP21 in 2015, to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The global temperature rise is already at least 1.1C and the stocktake urges nations to be much more ambitious in their actions to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, which experts argue would require a minimum 43 per cent reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by the close of this decade. This, many climate experts believe, is an unprecedented result, especially in industrialising nations where emissions are still on the ascent.
At COP28, the emission reduction plans have already faced criticism, particularly from the UN chief. Less than 24 hours after their launch, UN Chief António Guterres denounced the net-zero charter presented by Jaber, the head of this year’s conference, stating, “It says nothing about eliminating emissions from fossil fuel consumption.”
“Science is clear: we need to phase out fossil fuels within a timeframe compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” the UN chief emphasised on Sunday. “In addition, [the] announcement provided no clarity on the pathway to reaching net zero by 2050, which is absolutely essential to ensure integrity. There must be no room for greenwashing,” the UN secretary-general added.
Unveiled by the COP28 presidency in collaboration with Saudi Arabia, the world’s second largest producer of oil, Jaber’s plan included a coalition of around 50 leading oil and gas companies committing to achieving net-zero emissions from their operations by 2050. However, it failed to address the majority of greenhouse gases resulting from end consumers’ burning of oil and gas products, and none of the companies committed to cutting production.
What to expect out of COP28?
Historically, each COP concludes with countries adopting official protocols, agreements, or resolutions. For instance, at COP21, countries established the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set the current standard for emissions reductions. However, according to the Council on Foreign Affairs, a Washington-based think tank, these commitments are generally not legally binding, and past summits have concluded without concrete goals or achievements, as was the case at COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, where countries failed to set targets limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
In this year's COP negotiations, experts speculate there may be a push for commitments to "phase out" fossil fuel emissions, with the European Union potentially leading the way. However, most observers and climate change activists believe it's unlikely that there will be any new promises to phase out fossil fuels in Dubai.
“No nation is currently on a trajectory to fulfill the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement. At the current pace, we may find ourselves restricting the temperature increase to 2 or 2.5 degrees Celsius. If we're fortunate, achieving even this range would be deemed a disaster," cautioned Dr. Ashok Swain, Professor of Peace and Conflict at Sweden’s Uppsala University. “I don’t see much coming out of COP28,” the academic added.
In her recent Financial Times column, Pilita Clark highlights the role of certain nations in impeding progress on the defining dilemma of our era. She blamed petrostates for playing a substantial role in perpetuating fossil fuel use, hindering meaningful action on the climate crisis.
When asked about his thoughts on the annual climate conference and its outcome, Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org—an international environmental organization addressing the climate crisis—commented, “It's the true fight—between the fossil fuel industry and the rest of the planet.” McKibben added, “It's always underway, just more visible at the annual climate conference.”
The United Nations process, particularly in the context of addressing climate change, McKibben pointed out, may have reached its limits and that the Paris Agreement could be considered the peak. Referring to the role of petrostates in stalling climate action or their power over the final outcome of climate summits, the US-based journalist and author said: “Former Vice President Al Gore has proposed changing the voting away from 'consensus,' which might be necessary.”
The COP meetings function on a consensus basis, allowing any single country to wield the power to block an agreement. This condition, established by Saudi Arabia—one of the largest oil producers, accounting for roughly 15% of global output—prevented the formulation of voting rules at the inception of the COP process in 1995.
Speaking at the Bloomberg Green summit during COP28, Gore, a climate campaigner since leaving the Naval Observatory, the US Vice President’s residence, cautioned, “The predicament our global community faces demands seeking permission from petrostates.” Gore observed that, time and again, the response from petrostates is a resounding 'no, sorry’.
Lack of political will
When it comes to climate action, there has been more talk than walk. Experts believe the missing ingredient for climate action is political will. But the warnings are getting more pronounced and louder than ever. Time to act, according to scientists, was ‘yesterday’ and the world is already late.
When asked to comment about the prospects of meaningful progress at this year’s COP, Dr. Ashok Swain, Professor of Peace and Conflict at Uppsala University, Sweden, remarked: “The world is well aware of the necessary actions needed to address the climate crisis. The challenge lies in the lack of political will to enact these measures and avert the impending crisis.”
“Unfortunately, this will to act is lacking both in the global north and the south. The north struggles to acknowledge and rectify its past actions, as well as compensate nations bearing the brunt of climate change. Meanwhile, in the global south, there's a tendency to point fingers at the north without realising that adaptation measures are equally crucial,” the Sweden-based academic explained.
Rise of deniers
The world confronts an unparalleled climate threat, compounded by the resurgence of climate denial, especially in Western countries. In Dubai, the outgoing Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, informed delegates that his nation is "committed to accelerating our efforts" to address climate change. However, the fate of these efforts in a nation that is below sea level and protected by dikes hinges on ongoing talks to form a new ruling coalition. Geert Wilders, a far-right lawmaker and potential successor to Rutte, expressed a contrasting stance, advocating for abandoning the country's climate policies. According to his PVV party's election manifesto, "The climate law, the climate deal, and all other climate measures will go straight into the shredder." It further emphasizes redirecting funds from what it deems "useless climate hobbies" toward the welfare of the people.
Wilders is not the only right-wing climate denier, and he isn't the only one from the continent, injecting an element of uncertainty into Europe's climate commitment.
"The rise of right-wing climate deniers is a significant threat and can hinder Europe’s capacity for meaningful climate action,” Dr. Swain from Sweden’s Uppsala University warned.
He also pointed out the potential impact of former US president Donald Trump returning to the White House in the next election, casting doubt, once again, on Washington's commitment to the Paris Agreement.
"If Trump is reelected, we might witness another dangerous rollback from Washington on numerous climate commitments,” Professor Swain added.
In 2020, the United States made history by becoming the first nation to formally withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, a move executed during Trump's presidency. Moreover, the former president took steps to dismantle key climate policies and rescinded over 100 environmental regulations governing areas such as clean air, water, wildlife, and toxic chemicals.
Research from the German think tank Adelphi indicates that the rise of right-wing populists in federal and state parliaments poses significant challenges to ambitious climate policies around the world.
While experts believe democracy and climate change should be discussed in the same context, they often remain separate. Many argue that defusing the global climate emergency is contingent on safeguarding democracy.
Last year, Mark Hertsgaard, an American journalist and the co-founder and executive director of Covering Climate Now, wrote in The Guardian: “The democracy emergency is closely linked to the climate crisis. Defusing the global climate emergency, therefore, depends on protecting democracy.”
In his article, Hertsgaard highlighted that many of the major underperformers at the COP26 climate summit were nations where authoritarianism is firmly established or gaining prominence, including China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, and the US.
Commenting on the intersection between the climate crisis and the global crisis of democracy, Bill McKibben, a prominent US-based climate campaigner said: “Authoritarians from Trump to Putin to MBS to Modi are often allied with the fossil fuel industry; at the very least, they are alike in cracking down on environmentalists.” “Defending democracy is a crucial component of progress on climate,” the founder of 350.org said via email.
Concurring with McKibben, Uppsala University’s Professor Swain further added that populist leaders show minimal concern for climate-related issues and even display resistance to climate refugees. The increase in Europe’s xenophobia, he explained, is linked to this political leaning.
Global consumption patterns
Consumer habits play a crucial role in propelling climate change. A 2015 study revealed that the production and use of household goods and services accounted for 60 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Per capita impact is notably highest in affluent countries.
According to a recent UN report, the wealthiest one per cent of the global population emits over twice the amount of greenhouse gases compared to the poorest 50 per cent. Additionally, as individuals amass wealth, their energy consumption rises.
To effectively address the climate crisis, Dr. Swain advocates for a more comprehensive approach. "It has to be an all-rounded approach. The wealthiest countries in the world are also the biggest consumers, which significantly impacts the environment."
He emphasises the urgent need for a significant reduction in consumption to combat climate change.