Impact of recent conflicts, multipolarity and the US empire

China cannot match with US involvement around world, for past 75 years or so in organisations

Last week in this space, trends defining the contemporary construct of International Relations were outlined.

First, the war in Ukraine has pushed Europe deeper into the ‘empire-like’ American embrace, cementing the Tran-Atlantic Alliance and making the US undisputed leader of ‘free’ world.

Second, the war in Gaza would have five likely consequences: a) beginning of the erosion of global power, prestige, and prosperity of the World Jewry in general and Israel in particular, b) potential movement towards a two-state solution in Palestine, c) redrawing of Middle Eastern political landscape, with ‘Abrahamic’ affluence and regional public opinion sifting and shifting, d) erosion of the social contract between Muslim Street and the State, and e) the rise of Muslim Street in Europe and America. Muslim voting credential will have a bearing on the political and electoral outcomes in their countries of residence.

Third, racism, sexism, intolerance, bigotry, and anti-Semitism would define the future North-South relationship with anti-immigrant sentiment occupying the center-stage. Despite support for Palestine, anti-Muslim sentiment particularly in Europe seems to be the new normal.

Fourth, internationally, the simmering anger in the street discredits politicians and leaders like never before. For example, just 4% US adults favourably view the country’s political system and government institutions, according to a September 23 survey by PEW Research Center.

Following on from the above, the raging debate about the US, China, and Russia in the context of re-emergent bloc-politics is important from an IR perspective, especially for smaller countries like Pakistan. The US first. There is sizeable literature and scholarly opinion, that for the US beginning of the end is on the horizon, as an inevitable truism. Empires rise and fall, and the US empire is no exception to this historic continuum. However, the fall could be spread over decades and in some case like the Ottoman Empire (1299-1922), over centuries, climaxing in the Ottoman defeat in World War-I. Alternatively, the fall could be due to systemic factors like in case of the Western Roman Empire (625 BC-476AD), which fell after a complex process under combined economic, political, military, and social weaknesses and because of external invasions. Or the fall could be the result of a cataclysmic ‘butterfly’ event like in the case of the British Empire, which unravelled with the independence of the Subcontinent. Although the underlying causes work in a complex manner and the fall is hardly attributable to a single factor.

In case of the US, the dominant Empire of 20th century to date, the process has set in. A rising China and its alliance with Russia is acting as the ‘other’ pillar of our multipolar world. The once ‘benevolent’ America, that always stood with the underdog is increasingly acting like an ‘arrogant empire’ to borrow from Fareed Zakaria. Its soft power is brazenly replaced by naked and brutal military force around the world, and this is the main cause of instability from Vietnam to Korea to Afghanistan to Iraq to Syria to Palestine and elsewhere. Its regime-change strategy catapults regional orders, and in developing countries like Pakistan, the debate is not centered on what Pakistan needs, but on the fact ‘what America wants!’

American Century is increasingly seen being challenged by a rising China, if reading of the US-generated analyses are to be believed. Beijing seems to be the pervasive bogey for the US military industrial complex and other vested interests. China is the next nation the US is most likely to go to war with, most likely before the turn of the Century. It does not matter if China has the wherewithal and intention to challenge the US supremacy. War continuum is lifeline for all empires including the US. However, from wars of conquest, the 21st century formulation is wars of domination and control. That brings us to China’s real potential, clout and leverages.

Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) is militarily incompatible with the US given Chinese military System that still relies on ‘mass’ rather than the 21st century’s contactless combat. PRC’s training doctrine, mobilisation potential and reserves, its warfighting strategies, and relative lack of overseas combat experience would be telling in a future Sino-US conflict. Geostrategically, China has carved out expansive niches for its trade and commerce through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its alliance potential is also impressive.

However, China cannot match with the US involvement around the world, for the past 75 years or so in organisations like the erstwhile League of Nations, SEATO, CENTO, today’s UN and most recently in NATO. Technologically, the US still dominates the world ‘chip’ manufacturing and supply and leads the world in hi-tech manufacturing. Financially, Washington controls international economy through World Bank (with the largest voting right), International Monetary Fund, its four large commercial banks and a host of other institutions like Financial Action Task Force, etc. Diplomatically the US has an aggressive, savvy, and competent diplomatic corps and presence in other international organisations like USAID, that use all tools in their kitty to advance American interests globally. CIA, the English language, and dollar are feared and sought after. A vibrant economy, multiculturism and ‘relative’ lack of ‘red-neckism’ still makes the US the most favoured destination worldwide. Its citizenship lottery remains a magnet for would be migrants. China, contrarily, must do a lot of catching up.

During the November 15, 2023 summit between Presidents Xi and Biden in the US, the Chinese leader, reportedly, sought revival of American financial investments in China and an end to technology export controls, which at least temporarily, have affected Beijing’s ability to make advanced semiconductors and their usage in Artificial Intelligence, acknowledging the damage. He also underscored the harm done to PRC due to its portrayal as a villain in the US. He also seemed to have abandoned his “wolf warrior” tone, that he encouraged in the Sino-US bilateralism. Above iterations, amply suggest that any perceived demise of the US in near to mid-term is not happening, and China still needs to do a lot of catching up to fill and/or capture any significant space.

As far as Russia goes, sanctions and military attrition has weakened it considerably, and Kremlin will need a long time to recuperate militarily and financially.

So, whereas the Sino-Russian bipolarity will remain the ‘other pole’ of the International Relations, the US will continue to hold the mantle of global political, financial, military, and diplomatic leadership in the foreseeable future. Decline but no demise…

Published in The Express Tribune, December 7^th, 2023.

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