America’s ICS for Pakistan

As a predominant international actor, the US crafts its Integrated Country Strategy (ICS) for many countries across the world defining how and why the US Mission for these countries would propose policy objectives to meet its security interest. Besides discussing other South Asian countries, the updated 2023 ICS policy document also focuses on Pakistan from both traditional and non-traditional security paradigm. Although it is encouraging that the US proposes to work closely on the non-traditional security imperatives such as climate change, economic condition, democracy, terrorism, health, education, agriculture and infrastructure, it is recommended that the US help Pakistan develop the rudimentary infrastructure with the possible transfer of technologies in mitigating issues on non-traditional security imperatives based on the logic of “helping Pakistan helping itself.” The non-traditional security analysts would always argue that development of these imperatives could ease the pressure on the core traditional security issues Pakistan confronts.

Following up the crux of the US policy document on the chapter Pakistan for traditional security paradigm, it argues that the “nuclear security and maintaining regional stability in South Asia remain key priorities” for the US and that “the US Mission will work with Pakistan to promote strategic stability and to deter destabilizing capabilities and policies”. The document also highlights that the US “will continue to encourage Pakistan to engage diplomatically with India and recognize that durable peace achieved through diplomacy and regional integration”. More importantly, the US “will encourage Pakistan to continue demonstrating responsible stewardship of its nuclear assets”.

Focusing on the core traditional security imperative, it is equally important for Pakistan to protect its sovereignty, territorial integrity and broader security vis-à-vis its potential adversary, India. Arguably, Pakistan developed its rudimentary military and nuclear capabilities, which remains India-specific, for deterrence purposes — that is, to deter its adversary from waging even a limited war against Pakistan. This is carried out under the principles of credible minimum deterrence while covering the broad spectrum of threat facing Pakistan, which is often quoted as a full-spectrum deterrence. This is mainly to do with the spectrum rather than increasing numbers as wrongly perceived. Such defensive preparedness against the security threats becomes the state’s responsibility thereby making Pakistan a military and nuclear responsible state.

It is to protect the guardians from falling into the wrong hands and using such capabilities for deterrence purposes. On the nuclear stewardship, Pakistan has been taking good care of its nuclear assets to the international standard and protocols required. In comparison, India has already faced many incidents of theft and missing of nuclear materials, leave aside its self-proclaimed “accidental” firing of its BrahMos supersonic missile in Pakistan. The US policy document about India misses these serious security concerns.

Broader regional stability depends on the US balancing role in South Asia. Many security analysts consider that the increasing US-India strategic partnership undermines the South Asian strategic stability since this increases the security of India and decreases the security of Pakistan, causing an acute security dilemma. This enhances the arms race and risk of escalation. To prevent this, the US needs to play a balancing act in South Asia. The US played a significant role in the past by managing and preventing major military crises in South Asia, if not resolving them. The policy document does not say anything that the US would help resolve the outstanding issues including the issue of Kashmir.

Pakistan had already proposed a South Asian nuclear-free zone in the early 1970s and strategic restraint regime in the late 1990s, but India in its hubris rejected such useful proposals. Currently, it does not like to engage Pakistan through the already agreed upon CBMs, which further increases mistrust between the two rivals.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 21^st, 2023.

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